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this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2023
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I'll try to stick to facts and not mix my opinions in:
Now for my personal speculation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_phosphorus_munitions
The advanced munitions are almost certainly not white phosphorus. Israel already has M258A1 munitions and has had them for a very long time.
Far more likely they are bunker busters intended to destroy underground facilities constructed from reinforced concrete.
In Gaza? What?
That's targeting the people inside the tunnel, not the tunnel itself. Since people are probably supposed to return to these areas eventually, I guess Israel would not consider it sufficient to clear the tunnels temporarily. They probably want to destroy them permanently.
With the city above the tunnels being collateral damage...
When the surviving civilian citizens return, they won't have anything to return to.
That's what worries me too. They are destroying innocent civilian homes.
I believe that's considered a war crime these days. Someone correct me if that's wrong.
Haven't you gotten the memo? Nothing is a war crime when the "good guy" does it.
you can't call something a crime if you have no capacity to enforce it.
it's just words otherwise
IDF rules of engagement prohibit the use of WP for non smoke purposes. They have court martialed soldiers in the past for intentionally using WP in that manner.
So yes, this is a crime. It also means that it's unlikely to happen at a large scale. I would be surprised if it doesn't happen somewhat and there will for sure be accusations.
What makes them think the civilians can relocate within 24 hours but Hamas fighters can't?
If we're going with what the commenter above laid out, then even if Hamas fighters evacuate, their tunnels presumably get collapsed.
Also, I think that might actually be why they gave such a tight deadline. If there isn't enough time for everyone to get out, will Hamas manage to escape, that sort of thing.
God I hate all of this.
I'd guess Hamas would be better organized to escape at short notice than the civilian population. And they seem like the kinds of guys who would prioritize themselves.
I don't think the expectation is that 100% of all civilians will be able to relocate. But at least 600k have already managed to (saw that number on the news and can't find a reference any more...oh well).
I doubt Hamas will manage to relocate large amounts of their ordnance in that timeframe, certainly not with the civilian traffic. At least, not without exposing themselves as a potential target.
So they have the option of moving personnel and mild amounts of equipment, but will need to decide how much of a stand they want to make.
I agree with all of this. The only thing I’d add is that there’s a high possibility of a ground incursion to ensure the destruction of the tunnels.
Given Hamas has no real relevant air defense, they’re just going to use bunker buster type munitions to collapse the tunnels (and the buildings that have entry points). At that point, they can send in ground units to finish. Hamas also has no ground-fighting capability versus armor or artillery, and will be relegated to house-to-house against an enemy that can just call in an artillery or air strike. Hamas also has no path of resupply. It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.
If they’re playing it smart, Israel wil let the ICRC and other aid groups in as soon as they’ve cleared an area and it’s safe for NGOs to conduct aid.
In terms of long term strategy, Israel will need to do more than simply allow NGOs in to conduct aid. Any power vacuum can be dangerous, and giving direct aid will help minimize the chances that a more violent group than Hamas will sieze the opportunity.
After seeing the video of the high yield munitions last night it also looks like they are also showing our munitions for other countries to see.