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this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2023
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A very slim chance. 24 hours is very short notice, and the circumstances make it very difficult to relocate so many people.
It defeats the purpose if you give Hamas time to organize. Getting rid of Hamas ASAP is the surest way to minimize civilian casualties.
The surest way to minimize civilian casualties is to not drop any bombs.
The incursion has been withdrawn, the threat has been contained as much as it can be. Any bombing now is pure retaliation. Any disablement of Hamas strength won by this will be only temporary and will be restored in a few years with more anger, all at the cost of civilian lives.
If Israel truly only cares about protecting Israeli lives, they'd establish a line, start rebuilding the fence with better surveillance and start negotiating for the release of the hostages.
It makes some sense from a military perspective to destroy certain enemy positions. Centres for command and communication. Missile launch sites, missile workshops, storage facilities.
Yes, Hamas is probably already very good in adapting to strikes on these, and the infrastructure will be rebuilt in a few years tops. But if that means less missiles fly into Israel for a few years, it could make sense militarily.
It is a dilemma this infrastructure is interwoven into a civilian, urban area. Whatever you do, someone will have good arguments to blame you.
Of course, the surest way to avoid [Palestinian] civilian casualties is to not drop any bombs. But since that also means Hamas will have it easier to make and send new missiles, or plan and launch new border raids, not dropping bombs does not maximize [Israeli] civilian safety.
I'm aware this conflict is way more dirty than it may sound here.