487
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
487 points (91.9% liked)
politics
19144 readers
2501 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Pro-Tip - Nobody serious will primary him.
The history of primarying a sitting President is that if you do the damage, you won't win, but the President will fail in the General.
If Biden foregoes a run (he won't) and named an heir, we'd be in a better place than described. But it cannot look like Hillary Clinton on the way to a coronation. We lost that one.
Yup, that's what I'm aftraid they're setting up for '28 and Harris - "Her Turn 2.0".
How many times has that happened?
Once with Carter?
And wasn't that the moderate establishment intentionally kneecapping his second term because if a Republican won they could say it was because Carter was too progressive and the Dem party needed to be more conservative? But if Carter got a second term, progressives would keep winning primaries?
I can't think of another time an incumbent Dem president was primaried.
But I bet the next time it happens is after the first term of a progressive president. Suddenly party leadership will decide we deserve a say in their private event where they don't have to respect the results.
Johnson was primaried, did poorly in VT and withdrew his nomination. Nominee lost to Nixon.
Ford was primaried, lost to Carter.
Carter was primaried, lost to Reagan.
H.W. Bush was primaried, lost to Clinton, but was also fighting Perot.
So basically every time it's happened in recent times.
Guess there was few more.
This article should help you:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-2024-primary_n_6503225de4b0800d579d8f64
Tldr:
Saying primary challengers make incumbents lose is like saying getting a warning for speeding makes someone more likely to get a speeding ticket
Driving over the speed limit makes both more likely.
So in addition to my point about Carter, and this shouldn't need to be said, but if a president is so bad that they have to fight a tough primary as an incumbent, they're probably not going to win their general.
An easy fix is to normalize a primary. Strong incumbents get a second go, and we're not running an incumbent no one likes in the general if they lose
I think there were legit weaknesses in Johnson, Ford, and Carter.
Johnson because of Vietnam of course. Ford because he pardoned Nixon, and Carter due to the hostage crisis.
Bush was more hurt by Perot than the primary. Buchanan got all pissy over the "read my lips, no new taxes" thing.