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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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Yeah. And it would have been this way no matter if he did nothing, attacked Hamas directly, or bombed Israel.
The conflicts in the Middle East is very devisive. Folks have been fighting over that area since before we have written history. No matter what you do someone is going to want you dead.
I think his approach of guarding without direct invasion is probably the right one, but neither side will be happy with it.
Sure, but things got a whole lot worse for world politics in the 20th century.
Yup.
People seem to think I'm saying he's made the wrong choice and he'll loose because of it, but really I'm speaking very broadly.
What I think is unique to him in this election is his target voters. His caucus is significantly more progressive than they were even 12 years ago, which is why his whole message thus far has been 'the most progressive president of a generation'. And the Palestinian conflict in particular has seen a huge swing in sentiment. It used to be that the Democrats could reliably run a pro-israel campaign and their base would at least tolerate it, but that's not the case now.
The Republican base could not be more different, and honestly I think someone like Trump could campaign on even an anti-zionist position and not loose much support.
That the conflict flaired now is a disaster for him, because there is no way to handle it that will net him more votes. In particular, Biden would never be the one to change what has been the American diplomatic position for the last 70 years. And I think Netanyahu knows this, and will press the issue well into 2024 to rally support for his own goals.
People also forget how brutal war is. Civilian casualties are the rule, not the exception, esp in urban engagements. Ceasefire is also a laughable proposition, if you think either side would actually do it I have a bridge to sell you.
Really all we can do is see how this goes. And I know that even if the Israeli govt. is awful, if it's a choice between them and Hamas controlling the area in the end, I'd rather see it be Israel.