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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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The problem with Presidency. More people approve of his decision than disapprove. Either choice would have fucked him next November.
Lucky for him, Encumbants get a huge leg-up on the reelection bid and need to basically be guilty of treason not to win.
That's what I'm saying, it doesn't really matter what he does here. Unless he abandoned 70 years worth of American diplomacy, he simply cannot sell this as an appeal to the more progressive wing of his caucus (which he desperately needs). Progressives are already skeptical of his progressive bona-fides, and this is just another reminder that he's a Neo-liberal democrat at heart.
It really depends on how things shake out in the next year, but this is certainly the most likely thing (right now) that could sink him. Even if he doesn't loose, it certainly makes things way harder down the ticket. He could either end up loosing house seats or he could have to contend with a far more polarized congress, and either way that's bad news.
I'm not sure a progressive president would have done much better in this. Ultimately, we hope the President does what's best for the United States first, then the world second. A large number of progressives aren't isolationists, and Israel is a large part of our displomatic positioning in and around the Middle East. Not because they're "the good guys", but they're the ones that don't actively hate us. I'd like to see that change, and I think it could, but we're not there yet.
Agreeing that Israel is justified in attacking Hamas. Insisting diplomatically that Israel should limit its actions to enemy combatants. It's a complicated situation. And ironically, if someone is isolationist enough to throw out our alliance with Israel, they woudl also be isolationist enough not to care about the Israel/Palestine conflict. It's sorta lose/lose for us due to past decisions and actions.
It depends on how you define progressive, but largely I agree not much else could have reasonably been done, regardless of how progressive they are.
But Biden's situation is unique to him and his campaign. A Bernie incumbent wouldn't be needing to defend his progressive alignments and policies, but Biden is very much fighting an optics battle. He is pitching himself as "the most progressive president in a generation" because his survival depends on that demographic. Whatever your opinion is on what he's actually done, his polling numbers clearly indicate that the progressive base does not believe he is sufficiently progressive. This conflict fucks his messaging, and the progressive caucus seems fairly animated by this issue particularly.
Again, it would be pretty hard for him to loose reelection (though I would strongly caution against assuming so), but that doesn't mean he can't still be put way on his back foot for his second term.
Is he though? This feels like everyone expected Obama to be a progressive despite years of media calling him a Moderate. Even Trump accused him of being a "radical moderate".
Biden agreed to give Progressives a small seat at the table, which is the best we've gotten since at least Clinton, if not Carter.
I've learned from Trump that "how you poll" and "how well you're doing" are two very different things. Trump should've polled a 0%, and yet he hit almost 50% on multiple occasions. And his highest approval was throughout 2020.
I'm not speaking to whether Biden is winning progressive votes, only to whether he's doing his part. I don't think Bernie would be doing better than him on any of these things, but as you say, progressives would give him more lenience because he didn't come in as a moderate.
Well yeah. Welcome to the president problem. You're always making a lot of people mad, no matter what you do.
I never expected anything more than 4-8 years of back-leg after Trump, from any president. But we still have to support him if we don't want Trump.