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A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.
(www.washingtonpost.com)
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this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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politics
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Polls a year out are meaningless. Obama was also "losing" at this point before his re-election.
Nationally, Democrats have been beating polls by 9+ points at the ballot box since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Reminder of what an absolute shit-bird Robert Kagan is.
Kagan is one of the shitheads that got us to this point. He's now concern-trolling us about how we shouldn't bother opposing Trump.
I completely agree but I would just like to point out that Glenn Greenwald is also a massive shithead.
Yes, he absolutely is, but he was also correct in that particular assessment.
EXACTLY. I'm getting tired of these doom and gloom articles from journalists who know better.
Either the media wants a horse race or they absolutely don't know how to poll post Roe v. Wade.
Probably both.
Or they're consistently polling only LAN lines.
It's really surprised to me how quickly this dropped from political discourse and analysis. We've had several off year elections and the midterms now where Republicans have underperformed. Polls have largely seemed to miss this trend.
There's a lot of reasons to be hopeful right now. Republicans can't control their messaging on abortion, and it's very clear voters are unhappy about bans. Yet, Republicans in the House are only barely aware of it, and in the Senate you'd think they hadn't seen any results at all. Tuberville's continued hold for abortion reasons, while voters have made it clear anti abortion advocates can go fuck themselves, is remarkably visible. I don't think it's a mistake that Republicans are signaling they'll bypass him if he doesn't budge. Elections a month ago make it clear it's a millstone around their necks.
We have an advantage to capitalize on, but it only matters if we press the advantage. We have to show up en masse to the election.
Moreover, the Democrats need to get their messaging together. Hammer in that THESE ARE THE PEOPLE who overturned Roe, who are currently cratering Florida and Texas, who allowed COVID to run rampant. Hammer in Tuberville blocking military promotions, hammer in Johnson and McConnell both effectively refusing to do any of their jobs, hammer in Trump nearly getting us into a shooting war with Iran (remember that assassination we carried out during a peace conference?) Remind the voters who exactly Trump is, what exactly he's done, and what exactly he's stated he's going to do.
At this point, I think it's advantageous for anyone who is set in their decision to lie on polls and say you'd vote for the opposite candidate in the hopes of making that side complacent and light a fire under your side.
Obama was about 46% and trending upwards at this point, Biden is 37% and trending downward. This is a pretty nice visualization of historical presidential approval ratings plotted with Biden's. Takeway is while other presidents have tanked way harder (Nixon, Dubya, HW), Trump and Biden are basically tied for historical unpopularity on a consistent basis. Biden did hit mid 50s as he came in to office where most presidents get a bump, Trump didn't even reach 50.
Just because he's a neocon piece of shit doesn't mean he can't be right. Also, dude, Glen Greenwald is no fucking saint either. That guy is a certified scumbag. At least with Kagan there's a chance that he actually believes his bullshit, whereas with Greenwald, we know he's an intellectually dishonest grifter.