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this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2023
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Fediverse
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You sound so innocent it's almost cute. Option 2 will never happen because people are already aware the Fediverse exists and that still doesn't make it for them, what the want is the closed walled gardens, when (not if) the time comes to cut off Threads they'll just return to their posting there. With Threads closed off from the Fediverse, there is no incentive for them to keep their activity here.
I would argue that most people don't know about the Fediverse.
The Fediverse has maybe a few million users, depending how you count it.
Threads has 100s of million users. Even if only ½% of those move to the Fediverse, that's still a huge win.
Gonna start paying mods, admins, and instance runners? That is huge amount of extra work that they would need to put in. Slow growth is sustainable, rapid growth is very risky to platform viability.