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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2023
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Battle of the Atlantic, pt II, coming up next! Flood the black sea with cheap corvette class ships! Depth charges for breakfast!
No seriously, I'd hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Turkey won't allow military ships to pass the Bosporus in any direction while there's a war on. This prevents Russia from reinforcing their Black Sea fleet but also prevents Western navies from entering.
That is not correct.
The Montreux Convention:
Guarantees "complete freedom" of passage for all civilian vessels in times of peace. In peacetime, military vessels are limited in number, tonnage and weaponry, with specific provisions governing their mode of entry and duration of stay. If they want to pass through the Strait, warships must provide advance notification to the Turkish authorities, which, in turn, must inform the parties to the convention.
In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base.
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit.
Montreux Convention signatories who are also allies of Ukraine are not at this point active belligerents in the Ukrainian war, so technically, it would be 100% above board for any of them to send a military vessel into the Black Sea.
Incidentally, the US is not a signatory to the Convention.
If the West decided to go hot, Turkey not letting western navies into the Black Sea wouldn't really make a difference to the continued existence of the Black Sea fleet
I feel like everytime someone "closes" a section of sea the US sends a carrier group right on through just to prove a point. I'm sure this is different because turkey is a tasty bird often served at Thanksgiving.
I think the geography of the Bosporus would give the fleet inside the Black Sea an advantage over those attempting to enter. Those attempting to enter would need air support to soften up defenses before sailing the strait
If the USA actually wanted to get into the Black Sea, there is literally no power on Earth that could stop that from happening.
Mf forgot about the Mongolian navy.
Awhile I expect the same as you do David triumphed over Goliath and the Football Giants defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. It would be a messy campaign.
Except for one: Russia's nuclear arsenal. We have to assume it is at wartime readiness despite the rest of their military being second best to Wagner.
Like the t14 armata?
The difference between peacetime and wartime readiness for nukes only relates to tactical nukes; at least when it comes to an competent nuclear power, nuke are always at the ready at a moments notice. They launch nukes, we launch in retaliation, major destruction spread out over large swaths of land, both sides nuclear capabilities are gone (other than subs that were already deployed and didn't launch their payload). U.S. sails into the Black Sea.
Nukes aren't designed to stop navies.
The Montreux Convention specifically prohibits “aircraft carriers”. This is the reason Russia has historically played cute naming games by calling their carriers “aircraft-carrying cruisers”, and additionally equips them with missile payloads somewhat comparable to cruisers or destroyers from other countries.
Also, the US is an ally of Turkey, despite currently strained relations. The US conducting a freedom of navigation cruise through the Bosphorus Strait would cause far, far more problems than it would solve at the moment.
The U.S. isn't a signatory to the convention and nations exist in a state of anarchy, one cannot (in an official capacity) impose their will over another without consent. There are other agreements between Turkey and the U.S. which would permit any and all passage, so in the absence of the Montreux Convention (which is indeed absent in this case) the U.S. can sail a carrier right on through without breaking any agreed-upon rules.
So the whole merchant fleet needs to fly Turkish flags and get a Turkish navy escort then.
Sounds like what you're saying is Ukraine needs more droneboats to clear Russia off the Black Sea.