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this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2024
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A mega sena (popular lottery ticket in Brazil) costs five reals if you fill it with six numbers. So I'd certainly pick the 5 reals bill, as the expected value per real is always smaller.
The picture changes if the ticket was filled with more numbers; if you hit any six then you get the jackpot, and it's accordingly more expensive (seven numbers for R$35,00; eight for R$140,00). For those I'd need to do the maths, but there are complicating factors:
To simplify it: let's say that only the primary prize counts, it's around 30 million reals (typical value), and that your odds are one in 50 million. Then the expected value becomes:
The five reals bill is still more valuable than a mega sena ticket with seven numbers, even if it costs R$35. But if it was eight, I'd pick the ticket.