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this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2024
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For those who missed the megapost on the New Hampshire Primary...
Nevada is holding it's primary on Tuesday, 2/6, but is also holding a Republican Caucus on 2/8.
Nikki Haley is running in the Primary, but not the Caucus.
Trump is running in the Caucus, but not the Primary.
But here's the thing... The Primary is COMPLETELY pointless. No delegates will be assigned based on primary results.
ONLY THE CAUCUS COUNTS.
So Trump has, in effect, already won Nevada, which is why Haley is focused on her home state of South Carolina which is the next one that counts.
Why does she do it like that?
Is it to spare her a big defeat in Nevada if she went head to head with Trump?
Or what would be the reason to just give up on the chance of getting at least some delegates?
So I'm speculating heavily here.
You can only run in either the primary or the caucus (per Nevada GOP rules, only true this year, who knows in 4 years).
At the time Haley had to decide which one she was running in, the list of who was running was still pretty long. You figure you probably can't beat Trump, best you can do is second. However if you jump into the primary and win (in a crowded list) you can say "The people of Nevada have spoken" and use that to gain some momentum. Yes, you win against not-Trump, but you still win. You've got real voting numbers showing that people will vote for you.
The problem is that Nevada has a caucus with only Trump and a primary with only Haley. (And maybe some randos?). That's not exciting for anyone, so we basically just skip it.
Yes, you don't get delegates this way, but you can pick up enough delegates other places. In a world where Trump is unavailable and it's a Desantis v Haley Nevada show down, then this would have been a really stupid decision by Haley. As it actually happened... It's fine. Nevada is a waste and we move on.