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this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2024
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politics
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You seem to be missing 2020 in your analysis.
I did speak to 2020 and the myth of Biden's special electability status. You, on the other hand, seem to be missing analysis in your analysis. All you have done is make bald assertions and snide digs, while I have offered explanations and at least some minimal evidence.
If there are specifics you want further support on, I am happy to do the legwork, but that doesn't seem to be something you are interested in. The polling isn't that hard to find, but I don't see any reason to bother.
Polling is really hit and miss these days.
Biden will have to work for it but he’ll win.
I was referring to polls from back in 2020, including exit polls. I agree that polls are generally pretty useless this far out, but current polls are so bad that they should at least be causing some concern.
Biden calling a panicked press conference to insist he doesn't have memory lapses, then having memory lapses in the conference is disconcerting. I do think Trump will have a conviction or two by election time, which would help. Unfortunately, Democrats are amazing in their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - see Fani Willis.