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this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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I’m worried they’re serious. The liberal leadership of Europe are mad dogs (the DPRK knows what to do with those) and the US is desperate and flailing with the way things went. They expected to crush Russia and now they realize they have no hopes of that with sanctions so want to kill Russians and drive up the cost to create anti-war sentiment at home to either force their terms for an armistice or to force a defeat and withdrawal and/or even attempt to use it to remove Putin from power or set a new domestic agenda from more pliant elements in his party in the Duma.
Of course they could be bluffing and posturing to try and get better terms from Russia and an armistice instead of a defeat but they certainly sound deranged enough I worry. And they may be huffing their own propaganda and further defeats once they enter and their own inability to lose face could mean a spiral of escalation.
Russia should not back down or compromise however. They should consider this a bluff, reiterate Ukraine is a threat to Russia’s existence and reiterate their right to use nuclear weapons if Russia’s existence is threatened.
If WW3 should be the result, Russia, China , and whoever else is involved better not flinch, agreed. Right up to invoking MAD and worse- humanity will be freed, the global south will develop independently no matter what, and western hegemony will be broken, come hell or high water.
And that's part of the issue- I think this is, in large part (not unanimously, but primarily) not a bluff. Western society, particularly it's elites, have drank the kool-aid past the point of return IMO. This is what the unipolar era and the "end of history," and hundreds of years of white supremacy and conquest has resulted in- these neocons are unused to consequences, unused to accountability, devoid any sense of self-preservation beyond their individual self and family and thus uncaring even of the end fate of their own nations and the peoples they ostensibly represent. Frankly in the face of the neocons I suspect there can be no peace, without such a show of force as a limited nuclear strike at minimum, in due time and in the face of predictably near-inevitable escalations to come. (This isn't me supporting escalation- but seeing it as near inevitable)
This is an interesting possibility for avoiding WWIII, but what kind of target would be hit?
Breaking the frontlines wouldn't really be possible I think especially with Russia's own troops nearby, so perhaps an attack against a logistics base behind the frontline or even going for the NATO countries' base far at the rear so NATO couldn't say they got attacked in their own territories?
Another possibility could be a nuclear attack against the first country Russia engages with, but I'm not sure they would do that.
I'm not promoting Russia making a nuclear strike now, nor necessarily anytime soon, or even necessarily doing it as the first strike. My point- and suspicion- however was that things would continue to escalate, in Ukraine, in Palestine and the MENA region, and in rogue Taipei, until a nuclear strike of some sort would be inevitable, and I suspect that peace cannot be found until the resolve for MAD is tested and found willing. Until then, I don't see the neocon agenda of ever-expanding, unhinged hegemonic warmongering coming to a standstill. Sooner or later (hopefully, later) the neocon ideology will force this scenario IMO.
I wonder, given how the west is starting to have a lot of distrust in the government and given the political divisions forming, if a call for war and the subsequent draft wouldn't end in civil wars across the west. How many people legitimately would want to fight for the countries they live in right now? The right wing maybe, but they likely don't give a damn about supporting a government they see as, whatever right wingers think.
Or would it strengthen internal ties?
In short; everyone go get diagnosed with bone spurs!
And how many would actively resist? Everyone says they don't trust their government, that it's corrupt and needs to change, yadda yadda. But the moment the ghost of Russia, China or communism appears - brains turn off and it's full on goose step. Will the citizens of Poland, Germany, Moldova actually fight their governments should those governments begin conscription? Or will they hunker down and pray somebody else gets nabbed? "Sure I don't want to die for the government, but someone should!"
Just a nuclear test. Like the DPRK. Hitting any target will just lead to retaliation