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this post was submitted on 01 Mar 2024
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Carbon credits are an absolute scam but EVs are also not going to get mass adoption and aren't going to replace ICE cars until used EVs are a thing without needing to replace the battery for the price of a whole car. So I can see why Toyota wouldn't be too interested in EVs, the tech for them isn't there for global adoption and is still a niche market.
EVs already attained mass adoption. In Norway almost all new cars are EVs. Several countries are not far behind. Most countries are more suitable for EVs than Norway.
How are most countries more suitable for EVs than Norway? Norway's hydro power and smaller size is pretty great for EVs.
The size of the country isn't particularly relevant. How many Australians for example regularly cross the desert? What's relevant is how far individual people commute and that tends to be a function of things like adoption of Work From Home policies and population density.
For example the UK is quite good for electric vehicles because the population is very dense (especially in London where the population is extremely dense).
How is Norway bad for EVs then
Batteries don’t like the cold.
They don't like charging in the cold but they'll dissipate just fine
Most lithium ion batteries take permanent damage if charged below 32°f, and if they are used below 15.
Sodium ion batteries w/prussian blue are a major breakthrough. Considerably lower cost, no bad chemicals or rare elements, comparable energy density to Lion, prospects for better energy density in the future, and nob-damaging use/charge in cold temperatures. Neat stuff.
They don't want to change way before 32, they heat the packs to fast charge. But 15 degrees is really uncommon as a consistent temperature in most populated areas and that's also why you insulate the pack to keep them from getting excessively cold.
I personally think LiFePo cells are currently the most proven opinion. Only downside is density but 300mi is fine idk why more is needed.
Yeah, they heat the packs to get around it. And all of that is waste energy.
But in winter in Canada, and many parts of the northern US, under 30 degrees average is pretty common during winter. ..and the last thing you want is a vehicle that's great when things are fine, but just won't work when things are at their worst.
Fortunately, the temperature issue is a problem that has been solved, and is being brought to market.
It's not really a problem unless you don't have the ability to drive the EV. Most people aren't driving long distances so just heat the battery and lose efficiency. People use more energy just heating the interior for themselves than the battery
It is a plroblem for people who want to trust that their vehicle will work if it's 5° out and the power's out, and your vehicle has been sitting in the child all night. The average temperature is irrelevant in that case - you must have a well-insulated battery, and power to heat it.
The fact is, in the north, the failure case is pretty bad. There's nobody who can just bring you a can of gas, there's no chance to recharge it without heating it first, and in order to charge it, you'll need to tow it. And forgetting to charge realistically becomes a life-and-death situation at worst, and a major hassle at best. To be fair, forgetting to get gas has always been a serious issue in the cold, but the current situation regarding batteries exacerbates that.
The two main things that are needed to fix this are:
The hydro power helps, sure. But Norway is big, cold, and sparsely populated.
Like Canada who doesn't sell many EVs?
The density of EV drivers in BC in the last 5 years has sharply, noticeably increased.
BC has stupid cheap electricity, it's a perfect candidate for EVs just like Norway.
It's true. Definitely part of my equation.
Smaller size???
Are you American?
I'm not sure about Norway but here in Estonia the vast vast majority of cars sold are used. New cars are rarely sold due to the price.
All cars were new cars once. If a majority of new cars are EVs, then it is only a matter of time before most used cars are as well.
It's not (just) a matter of money. Even in China a third of new vehicles are EVs, and Estonia is much richer than China.
The problem is that replacing the battery in an EV costs as much as a new car which is something you need to do if it's 10 years old.
Even if 1/3 of new cars sold is an EV that will take decades for any meaningful adoption since new cars are incredibly uncommon and affordable replacemt batteries don't yet exist.
I don't mind car makers making EVs but it seems like a pretty reasonable choice from Toyota not to enter that market yet.
You don't have to replace the battery every 10 years. LiFePo cells can do more than 3000 cycles before going below 85% rated capacity. CATL has been making these cheaply for years.
Toyota has been actively sabotaging EV transitions for decades. Of course they're against the thing they don't want.
I can currently find exactly zero used cars with a LiFePo battery here. I looked around more and it doesn't seem to be even used by any car brands that exist here so I have no way to check how expensive a replacement would be. I'm assuming there's a reason it's not used but I'm not going to dig into battery research over a lemmy post.
If those batteries solve all the issues leading to used EVs being feasible then that would be great in about a decade or two if they adobt that right now.
The only reason they are so expensive currently is because the demand is still quite new and the price you are quoting is ferrying the manufacturer who is incentivised to price it in such a way as to pay you towards buying a new car.
Go to an ICE manufacturer and ask for a new drivetrain and they will likely quote you parts and labour price that exceeds the value of the car.
Aftermarket support will continue to improve as the market continues to grow and mature. Give it another decade or so, and battery swaps/refurbishments will become as commonplace as ICE engine gasket replacements, while also being significantly cheaper.
Even as it stands now, ~10yo Teslas seem to have battery health at >80% (maybe due to over-provisioning?) and are sufficient to meet most commuter’s daily needs.