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this post was submitted on 05 Mar 2024
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You quite literally answer almost all of your statements in your last paragraph. Do you think China would allow the US to toe Korea’s red line? Would relying on the PLA for the conventional deterrent not be the better strategy?
Also I didn’t say that Korea should demilitarize, I’m just saying that isn’t the army big enough? How many more howitzers, tanks, and planes can really help? Korea has more then enough to prevent line toeing, and do they really need more military investment?
If you're the DPRK you already have seen your greatest ally collapse once (USSR). Wouldn't surprise me if they're always preparing for the collapse of their other allies too.
But at what point is it way to much, paranoid, and actively detrimental to the lives of Koreans? If China somehow collapses, there aren’t enough T-72’s in the world to save Korea from the US.
But by the looks of it, China is going strong and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.
up to the leaders of the DPRK to decide
people thought this about the USSR before it collapsed too. like just look at parenti's lectures, he had no clue the USSR was actually going to suddenly collapse in 1991
Honestly I don't believe China would just let the DPRK get invaded like that, they certainly helped them last time, and they actually were outgunned too.
China would absolutely step in.
Even in a selfish and self serving view of the situation, having a U.S. presence along the current northern North Korean border would be a security disaster of catastrophic proportions. The US would be able to station land based troops a stones throw away from Beijing itself and threaten cutting off the entirety of Manchuria in the event of a conflict. Further, the US could solidify an unshakable grasp on the Yellow Sea with land based aircraft, and safe harbors along the coast.
In a more nuanced look, China would never let North Korea fall for the massive historical and cultural tie between the nations.
Would they though? Can you guarantee that? Would you take that gamble if your survival depended on it? Both Russia and China have shown that they can be remarkably timid in situations where direct confrontation and conflict with the West would be required, much more timid in fact than NATO would be in the same situation.
Yes, they would.
Are you implying that China would rather let North Korea fall then become involved? Is that really a realistic scenario?
Do you think China will be timid if the US can station land troops, missiles, and ships 100km away from Beijing?
I'm just saying i don't know what would happen in that scenario and i think it's best to be cautious and not exclude any possibility.
Honestly i don't know, and i think neither do the Koreans. This isn't the 1950s and 60s anymore. I am not sure that anyone would intervene directly if the DPRK was attacked. They may give them weapons and send "advisors" like NATO is doing with Ukraine (and even then i think there is a chance that neither Russia nor China will do as much for the DPRK as NATO are doing for Ukraine), but the ones who will mainly have to do the fighting are the Koreans themselves.
You have to put yourself in their shoes: They lost their main ally once before when the USSR collapsed and that left them in a very bad position, they have learned that they can only really rely on themselves. Unless there is an explicit treaty with the PRC that guarantees that China will defend the DPRK, which i don't see China signing any time soon as they openly state they are opposed to the formation of blocs, the DPRK has to do whatever it deems necessary to ensure its own survival.
And as the Ukraine conflict has shown you can never have too much war materiel. In a large scale conflict you burn through an immense amount of munitions and equipment. So the larger your stockpile and your military industrial capabilities the better. How much exactly they should invest in military vs civilian economy that is up to the DPRK leaders to decide, we shouldn't presume that we know better than they do what the material conditions of the DPRK allow and call for. These are hard decisions that i don't envy them having to make.