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submitted 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

~~Tomorrow~~ Today(!), 3/5, is the biggest primary day of all, Super Tuesday!

There will be a lot going on in multiple time zones. Let's keep everything organized here so as to not over-run the board.

Here are the votes, sorted by timezone. In general we'll start seeing results just after the polls close around 8 PM local time.

And here we go! First results coming in!

Eastern Time:

Maine
87% Republicans reporting, called for Trump.
Donald Trump - 72.4% - ⁦70,830 votes⁩ Nikki Haley - 25.9% - ⁦25,321 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.1% - ⁦1,050 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.4% - ⁦425 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - 0.3% - ⁦271 votes⁩

84% Democrats reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 92.9% - ⁦55,506 votes
Dean Phillips - 7.1% - ⁦4,262 votes⁩

Massachusetts - Option for "Uncommitted"
78% Republican reporting, called for Trump.
Donald Trump - 60% - ⁦300,785 votes⁩ Nikki Haley - 36.8% - ⁦184,390 votes⁩
No Preference - 1% - 4,965 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.9% - ⁦4,535 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 0.7% - ⁦3,639 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.3% - ⁦1,503 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - 0.2% - ⁦948 votes⁩
Asa Hutchinson - 0.2% - ⁦824 votes⁩

82% Democrats reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 82.8% - ⁦467,017 votes⁩
No Preference - 9.4% - ⁦53,262 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 4.6% - ⁦25,889 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 3.2% - ⁦17,807 votes⁩

North Carolina
99% Republicans reporting, Trump called.
Donald Trump - 73.9% - ⁦790,750 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 23.3% - ⁦249,651 votes⁩ Ron DeSantis - 1.4% - 14,690 votes⁩
No Preference - 0.7% - ⁦7,386 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.3% - ⁦3,400 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.3% - ⁦3,151 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - <0.1% - ⁦905 votes⁩
Asa Hutchinson - <0.1% - ⁦723 votes⁩

98% Democratic reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 87.3% - ⁦606,302 votes⁩
No Preference - 12.7% - ⁦88,021 votes⁩

Vermont
99% Republicans reporting, Halley called(!)
Nikki Haley - 49.9% - ⁦36,030 votes⁩
Donald Trump - 45.9% - 33,140 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.6% - 1,140 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 1.5% - ⁦1,112 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.8% - 546 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - 0.4% - ⁦277 votes⁩

99% reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 89.5% - ⁦56,906 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 4.5% - 2,885 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 3% - ⁦1,933 votes⁩
Mark Greenstein - 1.2% - ⁦778 votes⁩
Cenk Uygur - 1.1% - ⁦697 votes⁩
Jason Palmer - 0.6% - 410

Virginia
36% Democratic reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 88.6% - 136,517 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 7.8⁦% - 12,016 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 3.6% - ⁦5,515 votes

71% Republican reporting, called for Trump.
Donald Trump - 66.2% - 285,613 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 31.9% - 137,572 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.1% - 4,550 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.4% 1,884 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.4% - 1,613 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley 0.1% 449 votes⁩

Tennessee + Central - Option for "Uncommitted"

Central Time:

Alabama - Option for "Uncommitted"
93% Republican reporting, called for Trump.
Donald Trump - 83.2% - 497,373 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 13% - 77,548 votes⁩
Uncommitted - 1.6% - ⁦9,750 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.4% - ⁦8,421 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.3% - ⁦1,859 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.2% - 1,436 votes⁩
David Stuckenberg - 0.1% - ⁦747 votes ⁩Ryan Binkley - <0.1% - ⁦508 votes⁩

93% Democratic reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 89.2% - ⁦165,800 votes ⁩Uncommitted - 6% - ⁦11,099 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 4.9% - ⁦9,072 votes⁩

Arkansas
59% Republicans reporting, called for Trump.
Donald Trump - 75.4% - 169,354 vote s⁩
Nikki Haley - 19.6% - ⁦44,116 votes⁩
Asa Hutchinson - 2.9% - 6,513 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.3% - ⁦2,832 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.3% - ⁦761 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.2% - 534 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - <0.1% - ⁦160 votes⁩
Doug Burgum - <0.1% - ⁦130 votes⁩
David Stuckenberg - <0.1% - ⁦124 votes⁩

60% Democrats reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 88.7% - 63,683 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 4.8% - ⁦3,453 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 2.8% - ⁦2,029 votes⁩
Stephen Lyons - 1.6% - 1,178 votes⁩
Armando Perez-Serrato - 1.1% - ⁦761 votes⁩
Frankie Lozada - 1% - ⁦705 votes⁩

Iowa - Called for Biden. 97% reporting.
Joe Biden - 90.9% - 11,083 votes⁩
Uncommitted - 3.9% - ⁦480 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 3% - ⁦362 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 2.2% - 268 votes

Minnesota - Option for "Uncommitted"
99% Republicans reporting, Trump called.
Donald Trump - 69.1% - ⁦232,850 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 28.8% - 97,202 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.2% ⁦4,109 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.4% - 1,492 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.4% - ⁦1,449 votes⁩

98% Democrats reporting, Biden called.
Joe Biden - 70.6% - 171,271 votes⁩
Uncommitted - 18.9% - ⁦45,942 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 7.8% - 18,994 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 1.4% - ⁦3,487 votes⁩
Jason Palmer - 0.3% - ⁦795 votes⁩
Cenk Uygur - 0.3% - ⁦721 votes⁩
Armando Perez-Serrato - 0.2% - ⁦402 votes⁩
Gabriel Cornejo - 0.1% - ⁦355 votes⁩
Frankie Lozada - 0.1% - ⁦327 votes⁩
Eban Cambridge - 0.1% - ⁦269 votes⁩

Oklahoma
98% Republican reporting, Trump called.
Donald Trump - 81.8% - 254,688 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 15.9% - ⁦49,373 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.3% - ⁦3,942 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.4% - ⁦1,095 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.3% - 1,020 votes⁩
Asa Hutchinson - 0.1% - ⁦431 votes⁩
David Stuckenberg - 0.1% - ⁦397 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - <0.1% - ⁦303 votes⁩

98% Democratic reporting, called for Biden.
Joe Biden - 73% - 66,824 votes⁩
⁩Marianne Williamson - 9.1% - 8,349 votes
Dean Phillips - 8.9% - 8,177 votes
⁩Stephen Lyons - 4.8% - ⁦4,435 votes⁩
Cenk Uygur - 2.2% - ⁦1,971votes⁩
Armando Perez-Serrato - 2% - ⁦1,805 votes⁩

Texas + Mountain
85% Republicans reporting, Trump called.
Donald Trump - 78.1% - ⁦1,709,131 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 17.1% - ⁦375,035 votes⁩
Uncommitted - 2% - ⁦43,128 votes⁩
Ron DeSantis - 1.6% - ⁦34,270 votes⁩
Vivek Ramaswamy - 0.5% - 10,083 votes⁩
Chris Christie - 0.4% - ⁦8,478 votes⁩
Asa Hutchinson - 0.1% - ⁦2,952 votes⁩
Ryan Binkley - 0.1% - ⁦2,402 votes⁩
David Stuckenberg - <0.1% - 2,167 votes⁩

82% Democrats reporting, Biden called.
Joe Biden - 84.6% - ⁦740,167 votes⁩
Marianne Williamson - 4.4% - 38,491 votes⁩
Armando Perez-Serrato - 3% - ⁦25,843 votes⁩
Dean Phillips - 2.7% - ⁦23,890 votes⁩
Gabriel Cornejo - 1.8% - ⁦15,682 votes⁩
Cenk Uygur - 1.5% - ⁦13,525 votes⁩
Frankie Lozada - 1.1% - ⁦10,057 votes⁩
Star Locke - 0.9% - ⁦7,720 votes⁩

Mountain Time:

Colorado - Option for "Uncommitted"

Utah

Pacific Time:

California

Other:

Alaska (Pacific -1 hour)

American Samoa (Pacific -3 hours)

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[-] Atyno@dmv.social 7 points 8 months ago

I think the biggest lesson tonight is it'll be political malpractice if Biden doesn't pour a bunch of resources into NC. For a closed primary, those exit polls are suggesting a huge amount of Haley voters are persuadable.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 4 points 8 months ago

It's funny, because my inclination would be "you're on crack", but if you look at the primary numbers:

Donald Trump - 73.9% - ⁦790,750 votes⁩
Nikki Haley - 23.3% - ⁦249,651 votes⁩
Joe Biden - 87.3% - ⁦606,302 votes⁩

184,448 votes separates Biden from Trump.

So if 73.88% of Haley voters defect, that could post a Biden win in NC.

Still seems like a high bar.

[-] Atyno@dmv.social 6 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

I was reading exactly that actually: 81% of them refuse to vote for Trump if Haley isn't the nominee. It's surprisingly doable just from the primary numbers.

Edit: Also, Republicans nominated a literal Holocaust denier for the governor candidate. That's gonna make that race A LOT easier and maybe effect the entire ballot there.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 points 8 months ago

Refusing to vote for Trump isn't the same as voting for Biden though. He has to convince them to flip, not just stay home.

[-] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 1 points 8 months ago

Refusing to vote for Trump isn’t the same as voting for Biden though.

Neat how that's never the case when the two are reversed.

[-] AlligatorBlizzard@sh.itjust.works 2 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

"No Preference" got just over 88,000 votes, and I'd say the vast majority of those people will (grudgingly, perhaps) vote for Biden in the general, so that narrows it down to ~100,000 votes separating Biden from Trump. Half of Haley voters flipping would do it, which, given the circumstances, I don't think is unrealistic.

Also, I'm betting that turnout for the primary doesn't reflect the turnout in the general because I suspect Republicans had more incentive to show up for this primary - if 'uncommitted' wasn't an option in my state, I wouldn't have bothered to get out of bed for this primary, because there's no real race, and there's likely no power vacuum if Biden dies in his sleep tonight - Harris becomes president and the presumptive Democrat nominee. Haley is staying in because if Trump dies in his sleep tonight, the Republicans have a problem. Also, I suspect if you've drank the Trump Flavor Aid, you'd be pretty thrilled to vote for him whenever you're given the chance.

EDIT: Are there any actuaries on Lemmy that can give the exact odds for a guaranteed first elected female president of color in the US? (Assuming the Republicans go with Haley if Trump dies.)

this post was submitted on 04 Mar 2024
56 points (87.8% liked)

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