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My pet theory is he knew he was losing the Romney Republicans hard. So he knew he had to juice his support amongst his actual base: the crazies. COVID was therefore the perfect wedge issue for Trump and Trump alone. Any other candidate would listen to the doctors, put them on TV, and win. Yes, think Bush in 2004.
But he was in a bind because his rabid supporters hated being told what to do.
So he tried to play both sides like always. He invented the vaccine, but you didn't have to take it. COVID is fake, but I'm blocking people from China (weeks too late). Etc.
So how did his vote count increase from 2016? I think a bunch of alcoholics and people who don't know how to have fun except taking their kids to Applebee's voted for him. They desperately wanted the rules and the closures to be done so they could leave the house. That simple. He juiced a little more of the rabidly selfish people who rarely vote, whereas a lot of his "hold your nose" voters voted for Biden or stayed at home.
He'd really painted himself into a corner on listening to experts.