I’m not trying to spread fear but the Doomsday clock is 90 seconds till midnight, during the Cuban missile crisis, it was 7 minutes before midnight.

That's because they thought history was over in the 90's, and effectively changed the scale. The CMC was so much worse. People thought of nukes as normal weapons and if an extra officer hadn't been on a particular Soviet sub it 100% would have gone hot.

I have no idea what our chances are, long term. Unavoidable success and unavoidable failure are both possible scenarios. Short term, the Middle East could blow up and millions there could die, but I can't see it spiraling into a nuclear world war on it's own. MAD is strong and the rest can survive without them. Medium term it all depends on American politics, as well as AI if that actually happens.