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US calls for immediate ceasefire in Gaza with draft UN resolution
(www.theguardian.com)
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"probable" is a value judgement by you. If you have data that non-voting in past primaries has definitively driven policy change then we can talk probability, but I've never seen such a metric described.
I am ready to be educated on the historical record of this dynamic, then we can reasonably discuss this current event.
Otherwise guessing something happened as a result of non-voting is just speculation.
Hmm. Perhaps this is a misunderstanding after all. this is about a recent primary election where voters chose non-committed, not abstention from voting entirely