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this post was submitted on 25 Mar 2024
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Definitely not Iran, but Russia and China are definitely possibilities. The only reason it seems impossible is that Israel has been a US satellite since it's founding. If that tie is severed, what's possible changes.
There are three real powers in the Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Two are in the US sphere, and one is in Russia's. Russia would live to pull ahead, and China desperately wants a solid foothold in the region.
Russia specifically would see a lot of tangible benefits. Israel has a top-notch defense industry with many technologies that Russia is missing. Protecting "the Jews" would also play into Russia's narratives about fighting Nazis in Ukraine and elsewhere.
If Russia gave Israel weapons, I’m sure Iran would absolutely love that. What do you think the blowback from that would be? Now China on the other hand.
I doubt there would be much. Iran is almost as dependent on Russia as Israel has been on the US. There would be some token diplomatic protests, but I doubt it would be anything more than signaling. Countries don't have friends, they have interests. Iran's interests are far better served by Russia than by supporting Palestine.
Hamas's entire strategy in launching their attack was to provoke Israel to overreact, which would then prompt Palestinian allies like Lebanon and Iran to get involved. The first part worked beyond their expectations, but Iran and Lebanon haven't taken the bait.
I don't think Russia can spare the weapons.
China, on the other hand, could.
The amount of weapons Israel actually needs is miniscule compared to something like the war in Ukraine. Russia is currently producing around 250k artillery shells per month. Munitions used in Gaza are measured in the hundreds over the entire conflict.
Iran and Israel can not be maintained in the same sphere of influence without copious amounts of hard and soft power that only the US and maybe China possess. So the Russia route is out unless they wanna lose Iran and they probably don't want that. China is more viable, but the thing is: China wants the Middle East on its side. They've been posturing for that for a while now. Taking in Israel would destroy all that in a second.