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this post was submitted on 06 May 2024
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UK Politics
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Err sorry were you replying to me or OP?
I was replying to you (you were saying Starmer is staying quiet because he needs Brexit voters in the North).
I'm saying that if that's the case, he's thinking of the Brexit voters of 2016, not what these people think about things in 2024.
Oh all right, thanks.
Yeah I do think he's got an eye on that 2016 Labour Brexit vote. I also think that while the situation has changed with respect to Brexit, it clearly hasn't changed enough in the vote Labour camp to make the Labour leader change his position for this election. He's not stupid and would have done some serious polling and canvassing in the the Brexit Labour heartlands. Probably also wants to mop up some Tory votes as well.
Starmer needs to court the Brexit vote to get into power. Right now he's happy to do that of that means a win in the election. Wed Love him to be idealistic and say: enough with this nonsense let's rejoin. But he's being realistic. It needs a change in the Tory Brexit voting minds.... but first it needs a change in the Labour Brexit minds.
I don't think Starmer is stupid but I think Labour's large polling lead has - paradoxically - encouraged him to be very politically timid, to the detriment of his party and the country.
Broadly speaking the Labour leadership seems to be acting as if, if literally nothing changes between now and election day, then Labour will win a landslide. That means no genuine big new policy announcements, because any policy change is seen as a roll of the dice that could change the polling status quo. Rejoining the single market whilst staying outside the EU could be a popular policy - polling shows that even Labour Leave voters support it by a 53% to 31% margin - and would give an incoming Labour government an actual policy option to help turn around the economy, but Starmer's caution means forgoing this in favour of saying literally nothing novel. The Labour leadership think any change is a risk, and why take a risk when you're already sitting on a polling lead.
In general I'm favourable towards Starmer, and certainly in comparison to what came immediately before him. But on several issues - Europe, electoral reform, Gaza/Israel - he's adopting bad cautious positions to protect the enormous polling lead over the Tories he's stumbled into. These are going to end up doing him more harm than good in the long run.