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The issue with a house arrest order would be that it fully denies Trump the ability to campaign for president, which (in his mind and his brainwashed constituency) is a political act and one that he has already prepared his goon squad to riot over. Buckle up buttercups, this should be fun.
That concern for the safety of the officials who would have to enforce an incarceration order is one of the things the judge specifically referenced in his statement.
They are not going to go crazy or anything. Here's why Trump is popular among the cud-chewers:
That's it. That's why long winded articles in The New Yorker and Vanity Fair about his many misdeeds don't sway his supporters. He does bad things and gets away with it.
As soon as he lost the election, he lost a lot of his power. J6 only happened because he was still in office at the time. He could still "get away with it", with help. Just putting him on trial takes away more of his influence, because he's not getting away with anything anymore.
If he is thrown in jail for contempt (or house arrest) I predict his supporters will be angry but not "go nuts" and attack anything. Fucking vote. This guy is clearly touchable.