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this post was submitted on 15 May 2024
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Do you happen to personally know a bunch of 2020 Trump voters who are voting Biden this time around? I have no idea where you're getting this confidence from.
I know a few, but to base my argument on anecdotes is not helpful. However, check this article out: Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska
A lot of people are arguing that it will be a close race, but if 17-20% of your party is voting for a candidate that has already dropped out of the race, that can't be good for a close race. These people SHOWED UP to vote for someone else who was no longer in the race. I refuse to believe that these voters went out of their way to vote for Haley in the primaries, just to say "Ah, fuck it, I'll just vote for Trump" in the general election. Third party votes are going to hurt Trump.
Maryland is blue and doesn't matter. Similarly, Nebraska went for the republican candidate by more than a 20 point margin in 2020.
If you want to use that argument, how many people voted for "noncommitted" in the Michigan democratic primary? People don't even have another option but are going out to vote "not Biden" in an actual swing state.
I live in MI and I highly doubt that. There’s a Democratic majority in all three branches.
MI went for Trump in 2016 and broke for Biden by less than 3% in 2020. If those "noncommitted" voters didn't show up, it would be a problem for Biden. Whereas if the Haley voters didn't show up in Nebraska and Maryland, it would not be a problem for Trump.