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this post was submitted on 17 May 2024
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Ukraine
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As it should be this far in.
There's no reason Ukraine should lose this war due to ammunition.
Maybe Russia still pulls something off, or they meat grinder their way through or something, but lack of ammunition shouldn't be why.
There's no reason it should happen, but it's the most likely way that Ukraine will lose. The coalition will break down and countries will stop doing their part.
Several long term, at scale, contracts have been signed. Factories are scaling up, Europe is feeling the pressure. And with the absence of stocks these factories need to be producing at max capacity for a while to supply Ukraine and replenish stocks.
If they increase output and Ukraine wins, yay Ukraine wins.
If they increase output and Ukraine falls and Putin tempts fate by attacking the Baltics / Nato they're already at increased output.
Really it's a win win at this point in terms of success or readiness.
Hence the investments. They make sense. NATO has known for at least 2 decades their ammo stocks where insufficient for any prolonged conflict.
Narrator:
My concern isn't manufacturing capacity, but Russian influence on politics making various world leaders withhold the output of that manufacturing capacity. This happened the USA and it took startling few Russian proponents to make it happen.
I'm there with you buddy.
Exactly. Russia's ultra right wing candidates are poised to win all over Europe and potentially USA. Until we get better fighting against their influence campaigns and buying off of politicians, this is the way they will win.