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Key global powers fail to sign up to Ukraine peace summit communique
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2024
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This is very delusional thinking. Imagine trying to negotiate with the winning side and your minimum negotiating conditions are for the winning side to just abandon all of their gains for no discernible reason. This too while the winning side offers generous terms which still leave Ukraine with access to ports and most of its territory, despite Ukraine being in a desperate situation now.
It is even more farcical when consider that these demands are already the de facto conditions. Russia holds most of the territories it is demanding. There are no current plans for Ukraine to join NATO as NATO doesn't accept members already active in war, and the NATO countries have no actual plan for either shoring up Ukraine's security in the future or even for rebuilding. The closest NATO states got was trying to use $50 billion from Russian funds to loan to Ukraine for rebuilding, which they didn't even go through with because the deal involved the EU taking all of the risk while benefiting the Americans.
In fact, ending the conflict now on Putin's recent terms is more beneficial to Ukraine and NATO than it is to Russia, even if the conflict were to start up again in the future. The returning Ukrainian refugees will restore Ukraine's manpower, and the NATO militaries will gain the time needed to restock weapon supplies, which they need more than the Russians do because Russian (and allied) military production is higher than that of NATO in volume.
I am of the opinion that the terms Putin has offered are cynically generous. He knows that the west won't let Ukraine end the conflict right now, so he can afford to boost his image right now. In later negotiations, he can point back to these terms and tell the Ukrainians that if they wanted better terms, they could have gotten them earlier.
Ok, I see that your pespective of this conflict is tottaly different than mine. But I don't see how exactly Russia is winning now. It's very a Pyrrhic victory at best. I don't know why exactly Putin starter whole thing but I am sure he still wants to take whole country. Agreeing on this terms (which are absurd IMO) it's agreeing for even bigger conflict in the future. And what's with all war crimes committed during this 'special operation'? I am from Poland and we see this totally different. Even from historical point of view I can see similarities to situation during II World War when nobody helped us against Germany and Russian aggression. I really want peace, but this 'generous offer' was not generous at all and I am sure Putin know this. From my point of view making such big concessions are inviting to another war after few years on much bigger scale and I am afraid of it.
Russia is winning because it has developed a steady momentum for keeping losses low while attriting Ukrainian forces harshly.
The victory is not by any means a phyrric victory, given that the Russian army is now larger, more experienced and has more material than the start of the war. The Russian economy is also holding up. The only thing that could be phyrric about the war is the loss of life, which is still not too high for russia.
Given the recent offerings, it is obvious that putin does not want to take the whole country of Ukraine. Not only will russia have to pay for the rebuilding, but it will have to face massive amounts of internal resistance for years to come, which is a headache that russia has no reason to deal with as long as they get their demand of no nato membership.
Finally the terms themselves are very generous as I have previously outlined. The loosing side in a war doesn't just get to keep everything with no concessions. That is not how wars work. I have also clearly stated the reasons why a ceasefire now on putin's terms is actually beneficial for Ukraine especially if the war were to flare up again. It would buy them time to recover fighting strength while the Russians would have to unwind their militarization, as maintaining a war economy outside of war would not be taken well by the population.