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this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2024
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.
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Man, they buried the answer:
"Across a thousand runs, the model cranked through the temperature data and settled on a year. Sometimes the model spat out later dates. Sometimes earlier. The two scientists made a plot of the numbers and a neat cluster emerged. Yes—2057. But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095."
So as soon as tomorrow as late as the next century? Fuck
No, not every year has equal probability. 2057 and the years around then are the most likely.
With a 95% certainty that it'll happen before 2095.