One year till the European elections and the commission is already falling apart with Timmermans and Vestager departures.
Timmermans is a very important candidate in The Netherlands that is having snap elections in November after prime minister Rutte finally decided to not run for his party once more after thirteen years of neoliberal governments.
It's an ideal moment for Timmermans to switch, because waiting until EU elections would mean he could not participate in the upcoming elections in The Netherlands.
That would likely mean the neoliberal VVD or farmer's party BBB would become largest and might even form an (extreme) right wing coalition just like happened in in several member states.
It's probably better for the EU that Timmermans switches now.
Yes, anyway the EU is kind of stuck right now with the Spanish presidency that obviously can't do much when they're having elections..
But what are Timmerans chances to become PM? In such a divided political landscape, even if he becomes the most voted party that doesn't ensure that he'll become PM.
I think the chances are significant that Timmermans becomes prime minister (The Netherlands is a Kingdom and has no president like France).
A Dutch prime minister usually is an elected member of parliament that is a member of the political party that received the most votes. The reason is that the largest party has the first chance to form a coalition and the largest party gets to appoint the prime minister if a coalition is formed. In theory an outside person might also be appointed prime minister, but that has never happened in history.
Yes, division of the political landscape is a problem in The Netherlands as well, but the new right wing farmer's party has more left wing social standpoints than the more conservative right wing party of current prime minister Rutte. The farmer's party is mostly upset about environmental changes that are required due to nitrogen deposition caused for about 50% by livestock. Timmermans already had a meeting with the farmer's party leader in his role as EC commissioner and that didn't result in some enormous backlash of problems. So that might be a sign the farmer's party is open for negotiation about nitrogen, as long as farmers aren't squeezed into a tight and speedily process to reduce nitrogen emissions. Timmermans is very knowledgeable about the topic and can probably work out some scheme where both benefit somehow.
The other reason why this is the time for Timmermans to leave the EC and try to become prime minister is that the green party and Timmermans' social democrat party have decided to run with one joint election list with candidates and (as we know as of today) Timmermans as leader.
Many people think Rutte's party will finally not be largest after all these years, but indeed, that still doesn't mean it's easy to form a coalition.
That would be an ironic turn of events if the farmers end up supporting a green PM. Thanks for the insight.
The green party is still made up of insane anti-nuclearists isn't it
Vestager departures.
Is she leaving? I haven't seen that anywhere.
She's applying to the EBI, and I think she'll have a suspension of her mandate starting very soon.
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