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https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1935138030941073447#m

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Scott Ritter: 'Iran should not escalate this, if they attack U.S. troops I will stand with our soldiers and marines'

@Middle_East_Spectator

Trump called his Security Council (translation not sure) for a meeting just now.

Seems like US intervention is imminent.

Israel seemed to ramp up the attacks again. Mostly targeting energy infrastructure it seems.

Tel Aviv

— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 What was the reason Iran agreed to the ceasefire, and did Israel 'win'? I will explain it to you straight.

In the opening strike, due to a combination of widespread internal sabotage and extensive Israeli airstrikes, most of Iran's long/medium range air defenses were wiped out.

Since day 2 or 3 of the war, the Israelis have operated with almost complete freedom over Iran's skies. First in the West, then gradually expanding to the center. We saw even UAVs operating quite freely at some point, a tell tale sign that something is truly wrong. This matter of air superiority is key to understanding the missile situation.

While Iran still has tens of thousands of ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers, that's not the issue at all. The issue is, due to total Israeli air superiority, no large-scale missile attack could be staged without receiving an immediate preemptive strike from the enemy. The moment Iran takes the launchers out of the underground base, Israel detects this, and strikes with impunity.

This forced Iran to carry out missile operations with smaller hit-and-run tactics, using older long range missiles from bases in the Center and the East, and unfortunately Iran's capability to respond in large volumes gradually declined.

In these circumstances, realistically, a war cannot be maintained. Since the first few days, real deterrence was already gone, despite some periodic strikes on 'less than relevant' targets (with the notable exception of Weizmann institute and Unit 8200 Logistics HQ). Launching 10-20 missiles daily would be a waste if it is not an instrument to a wider military objective.

Militarily speaking, Israel is the clear winner, and there is no sugarcoating this. However, politically, Israel lost. The Israelis did not achieve most of their main objectives. The Islamic Republic still stands, Iran's nuclear program still has a future, and martyred commanders have been replaced.

Israel's main achievement in this war is the near complete dismantlement of Iranian AD sites, and as a result, the successful suppression of large-scale missile fire from Iran. This forces Iran into a corner, as it was no longer able to keep up with the escalation.

The problem now is the following: Israel will use this ceasefire to re-arm itself. It will prepare for another war, more aggression, and to gradually achieve the goal they really wanted in the first place; regime change in Iran. It is also likely that they will try to implement the 'Lebanon model' in Iran — and strike targets inside Iran during the ceasefire, with relative impunity and no response.

How will Iran deal with this issue? Iran also has to rebuild its capabilities. Once again, missiles and launchers are not the issue. Iran will repair the collapsed tunnel entrances of missile bases in the West, and almost all missile bases (with the exception of Tabriz) will become operational again. But then what? The air defense network is gone, the same situation will instantly repeat itself.

Iran somehow has to find a way to guarantee that this ceasefire is not one-sided, that it rebuilds its capabilities, and that it finds a solution that guarantees its own survival and prevents any new Israeli aggression. In my opinion, the only way this can be done is rushing towards a nuclear bomb, nothing more and nothing less.

Because I respect my readers' intelligence, I will not pretend like this was some sort of 'military win' for Iran, although Israel did not fully win either.

But please read my analysis above, there are some nuances and some important points (in the political scene for example, Israel lost).

An advice to my colleagues of other channels: If we cannot acknowledge our own shortcomings and defeats, then we will never improve. Now is the time for self-reflection.

Iran has lots of work to do. So let's get to work.

I will always stand with the Islamic Republic and its leadership, no matter what happens.

@Middle_East_Spectator

Let me know your thoughts on this analysis @i_c_b_m@lemmygrad.ml @ComradePupIvy@lemmygrad.ml and whoever is online!

Oh cool, so we are officially at war with Iran, awesome /s

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1934993299556663573#m

—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Iranian fighter jets are currently intercepting drones above Qom, Hamedan and Kashan

@Middle_East_Spectator

From what I heard from a geopolitical analyst, in a prolonged attrition war, Israel will be in disadvantage. It has a smaller territory and less redundant critical infrastructure, such as oil refineries, power plants and factories. So their only hope is to draw the US in full force to the war.

We have also filed a complaint at the ICC regarding Israel's violation of human rights by attacking ambulances, killing our colleagues and taking the lived of innocent civilians as well as targeting civilian areas and even medical facilities.

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1936537473842090439#m

Netanyahu claims Israel holds control of the Iranian airspace and is well underway to their goal of destroying nuclear facilities and missile launchers

Now, this seems like a bold claim but then again it would be weird to claim such a thing if it is not remotely true. Makes me wonder what the plan is, if that's the case.

BREAKING: “We’re Talking About Hours” — Gaza’s Deputy Health Minister Warns Nasser Hospital Near Total Collapse

https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/1935030967195803873#m

Islamic endowments in occupied al-Quds: Occupation forces arrested two Al-Aqsa guards and raided the mosque's prayer halls

via almayadeen

Seems like an attempt to provoke and ignite a bigger war with the region

https://xcancel.com/SprinterObserve/status/1935390102949126620#m

That really does look the the Oresknik. I wouldn't be surprised if either Iran developed it or co-developed it with Russia.

Should be hitting pretty quick here.

7 IOF soldiers wounded, https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-857683

I think this might be the new AD proof missile that's been rumored

—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The alleged 'ceasefire' has now gone into effect

NOTE: Iran's last wave will arrive shortly after the ceasefire went into effect, but was launched before.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇦🇷🇮🇱🇮🇷"Iran is an enemy of Argentina. Israel is saving Western civilization," - Javier Millay, President of Argentina

Was watching Tel Aviv can at work (perks of working at a Union I guess) and just saw Tel Aviv getting hit

🇮🇷🥤🎉 Amid chants and cheers, Iranians are celebrating what they consider a national victory over EEUU🇺🇸.

Citizens express their joy over the missile strike against the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, one of the main U.S. military centers in the area

Okay, then crisis over right? Israel can stop attacking and this ends? ... Right?

PressTV stream says they "might" be 30 minutes into the ceasefire