The only way to hold what wealth you do have is through a limited supply asset such as gold, silver, etc.

ah, this is where I stopped reading.

Precious metals may be limited but their worth is still determined by the buyer and if I don't want or need precious metals for my goods it's worth nothing. They have very little inherent value.

Analysts have predicted 20 of the last three recessions.

You have some correct statements, but your conclusions aren't backed by evidence. Here are the correct statements:

• inflation has dropped, which means slower price increases for the average person
• higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, which means slower growth in the business sector
• gold and silver have historically held their value, on average

But then you get into incorrect statements and speculation, such as:

only way to hold wealth during a recession is through precious metals

Here's gold prices vs inflation historically, with recessions included. I don't see much correlation here, and there are very long trends where gold lost value. So I see nothing in the data to back up holding gold.

Here's a similar chart for the S&P 500. As you'll notice, it doesn't have as long of downward trends, and the total growth is much higher (2-3x vs gold).

So to me, gold looks just as volatile (maybe more?) and has worse returns relative to inflation vs stocks.

The best way to preserve and grow wealth is through a buy and hold strategy with a properly diversified portfolio. I don't think gold is important in a portfolio and instead recommend stocks and bonds, where bonds reduce volatility and stocks produce growth relative to inflation.

Inflation is a hidden tax

Sort of, but it's a lot more complicated than that. Inflation encourages consumer spending, since money doesn't hold as much value tomorrow as it goes today. That spending pushes up profits, which does two things:

• increase investment in the business - more jobs, bonuses, raises etc
• increase share value of the business - enriches share holders

You want to benefit from both, so you should be a share holder as easily as you can (i.e. invest in a diversified stock portfolio) and hold an in-demand job so you get those raises and bonuses (i.e. increase your skills, apply for new positions as they're available, etc).

The important thing to note is that recessions have historically been temporary, most of the time. The main exceptions are the Great Depression (perhaps could've been a simple recession if Hoover didn't overreact) and stagflation in the 80s (supply shock, similar to COVID issues; also big change in US monetary policy), but in general they last 1-3 years and are usually followed by a bull market as the market recovers.

So this leads me to two points:

• analysts are consistently wrong at calling the start or end of recessions - the market is incredibly complex, so if professionals fail, what hope do average investors have of correctly guessing market movements?
• buying and holding is a recipe for success - meet Betty, the world's most unlucky investor, who invested only at the worst possible times; her secret was to not sell, if you try to time the market, you will eventually lose

I don't know if a recession is coming, but I do know it'll change nothing about my investing strategy, other than perhaps how much I can invest.

Is this an ad?

Ooh, are we playing that ol' classic game, "Bot Script or 1st year Econ"? If so, I'm going with bot script.

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/150?format=amp