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Tories facing general election wipeout with just 130 seats, says polling guru (www.independent.co.uk)
submitted 11 months ago by Emperor@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are facing their worst ever result at the general election and could be left with just 130 seats, according to Professor Sir John Curtice.

The country’s top polling guru warned of the bleak situation faced by the Tories as they head into winter with the news dominated by infighting over the prime minister’s Rwanda deportation plan.

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[-] HowManyNimons@lemmy.world 28 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

The "shy Tories" may yet hold the balance of power. Most of those "don't know"s and even a few professed Labour voters may well stow their votes with the Conservatives when it's only them and God in the voting booth. They just don't want to admit it to a human poll taker.

Edit: added end quote.

[-] Transcendant@lemmy.world 10 points 11 months ago

My fear. Polls are kinda meaningless nowadays.

I just fail to understand what sort of person views the last 14 years as anything but a series of disasters?!

[-] HowManyNimons@lemmy.world 7 points 11 months ago

We've gotten very bad at voting. It's not just the British, if that's any comfort. It isn't any comfort.

[-] Transcendant@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Sometimes I wonder if voting should be mandatory, like in Australia... but forcing everyone to vote doesn't at all solve the problem of how so much of our news media is going out of their way to mislead and manipulate the voting public. Might even make things worse.

I keep seeing people whingeing about Starmer, saying they'll never vote for him, then you get several comments down the chain and they let slip that they don't actually bother to vote anyway. Madness.

[-] GreatAlbatross@feddit.uk 2 points 11 months ago

Not to mention that despite mandatory voting, Australia has managed to have Scotty From Marketing, then the next election a party who's entire policy could be summed up with "at least we're not the last guy"

[-] Transcendant@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago

Exactly, the reason for my concern over mandatory voting. Also it has 'tory' in the word and who knows, it might Derren Brown some people into voting for them!

[-] Digestive_Biscuit@feddit.uk 3 points 11 months ago

I didn't used to vote when I was in my 20's. At the time I didn't listen to the news or watch TV. I didn't vote because I had no idea who to vote for. Totally disconnected. It seemed a bit wrong to vote on something I know little about so I would choose not to.

If voting was mandatory it wouldn't have changed my lack of interest or knowledge.

Thankfully I'm more engaged these days but I think there's a lot of people out there who aren't.

[-] Transcendant@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Imo a key problem we need to try and counter (as a society) is voter apathy. A lot of people just don't care, or don't have the energy after a long day's work to invest in sifting through political bullshit for the nuggets of true info (understandable). Some people even take pride in their lack of interest which to me is like being proud of being stupid.

Politics affects pretty much every aspect of our lives. It drives me nuts when people whinge and whinge about the state of the country but won't engage one iota with the process of improving things.

[-] Backspacecentury@kbin.social 5 points 11 months ago

Well, the tories were voted in before, during and after Brexit, so.. yeah..

[-] Transcendant@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago

Don't you see, you fool?! They needed to get brexit done!

... is it done yet? The most frustrating thing about brexit for me was, it didn't have to be this intransigent, ludicrous, adamantium-hard brexit. They could've met the 'will of the people' and still kept some of the benefits of a close relationship with the EU. But no, they fucked it up like they've fucked up prisons; courts; probation; energy markets; water; environment; immigration; education; healthcare... I could go on but my fingers are getting tired.

[-] frankPodmore@slrpnk.net 5 points 11 months ago

The shy Tory phenomenon was always overstated and hasn't showed up in the polling in decades. A lot of current "Don't Knows" did vote Tory in 2019 but, if you look at the polling and focus groups of the DKs, they are furious with this government, can't name anything good they've done, and can't name anything that would win them back. Some of those DKs will split Tory anyway, but some will split to other parties or stay at home.

But we can't be complacent. The trouble is that none of the other parties is popular or trusted (not even the SNP anymore). It's just that the Tories are even less trusted. It's not DKs switching to Tories that should worry us; it's that people who really want the Tories out don't vote at all because the alternatives aren't sufficiently appealling.

[-] Jonny@kbin.social 27 points 11 months ago

honestly disappointed they'll get double digits.

[-] Navarian@lemm.ee 27 points 11 months ago

130 is more than they deserve.

Hopefully they decide to support PR voting off the back of this, I'm not 'too' hopeful though, would be quite unlike them to do something that actually benefits the electorate.

[-] jabjoe@feddit.uk 16 points 11 months ago

Couldn't happen to a nicer party......

[-] ChicoSuave@lemmy.world 16 points 11 months ago

Like all conservative societies in history, this one will fall in on itself as it desperately looks for the source of the problem in every niche people can create - except it won't see that the problem is conservative thinking.

When authoritarians take control, they will nosedive the country or business until only they remain. Everyone is disposable.

[-] twinnie@feddit.uk 14 points 11 months ago

However anyone feels about their performance they can’t simply do a better job between now and the election. The signs are there for everyone to see that it’s simply time to let someone else have a go.

[-] Emperor@feddit.uk 17 points 11 months ago

They probably feel that, at a minimum they could spend the time ripping off as much as they can and laying traps for Labour to stumble into to give them a better chance of getting back in at the following election.

[-] Jaysyn@kbin.social 5 points 11 months ago

Yep. The GOP did the same thing & it seems to be working for them because people have the political attention spans of fruit flies.

[-] GreatAlbatross@feddit.uk 0 points 11 months ago

That's giving labour too much credit: To stumble into a trap, you have to actually come off the fence some time.

[-] apis@beehaw.org 2 points 11 months ago

Of course, but there's a whole lot of destruction they wish to wreak before relinquishing power to make it all the harder for Labour to reverse the damage. They definitely don't want Labour to be able to get beyond reversing damage & onto instituting good things!

Meantime, they retain opportunities to carry on grifting until the next election.

Incompetence & bad ideas are one thing (governance is genuinely hard & complex after all), but they're not even operating in semi-reasonable faith.

[-] Skullgrid@lemmy.world 10 points 11 months ago

Wow, that's great, the election is soon , right?

...right?

[-] Emperor@feddit.uk 13 points 11 months ago

It's interesting. It has to be on or before 28th January 2025. Common thinking is that the Tories will wait as long as possible to grab what they can for themselves and their mates, while spoiling things for Labour but the polls keep getting worse and I do wonder if Sunak might threaten to call one early if there's a whiff of him being replaced - the Tory headbangers might just call his bluff.

[-] BurningRiver@beehaw.org 9 points 11 months ago

So I’m a yank and might need help understanding this. Through Thatcher all the way through Brexit, this Rwanda deportation deal is the driving nail that makes everyone understand that the Tories are a bunch of cunts?

I’m trying to figure out how to get my country to understand that our conservatives are a bunch of nation wrecking cunts as well, so any guidance would be appreciated.

[-] FarceOfWill@infosec.pub 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

No that deal is helping them. It was having parties while no one was allowed to meet in COVID. Giving away money to mates for PPE that didn't work. Truss having 30 days in power and making the economy even worse. Massive inflation.

[-] GreatAlbatross@feddit.uk 3 points 11 months ago

I think of it like trying to squash a mattress with lots of small objects. The more objects that you put on, the more areas that are squashed, but there are still parts that haven't been compressed yet.

Similar thing with the politics, people don't change allegiances until it's a bombshell they care about.

[-] Emperor@feddit.uk 7 points 11 months ago

🤞

[-] cupcakezealot@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 11 months ago

the election isn't going to be like the polling suggests; it'll be a lot closer.

and regardless, it's just going to be the red tories replacing the blue tories so will anything really change? and i say this as a trans person.

[-] frazorth@feddit.uk 12 points 11 months ago

and i say this as a trans person.

I'm not sure what this adds to your comment.

I completely disagree that it'll be "red Tories", his voting record is nothing like the "softer Tories". It just won't be as left as some people want.

All this doom and gloom about Starmer also plays right into the Tory smear playbook. If they can get everyone to talk about it then it doesn't matter how true or false it is. People who would have voted are now feeling "what's the point" and the Tories can win through disaffection.

Yeah it could be better with a different Labour leader, but fucking hell, it'll be a hell of a lot better than the past decade of rotating Tory failures we've had as PM.

Don't use headlines as basis for your opinion, use his voting record to show what he really believes.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25353/keir_starmer/holborn_and_st_pancras/votes

He has voted against restricting legal aid

He has voted against tuition fees.

He has voted against reducing welfare benefits

He has voted for increasing disability payments

That's not Tory.

[-] 15liam20@feddit.uk 7 points 11 months ago

That's right. I was someone who fell into the "they're red tories" trap during the Blair years. We were spoilt and didn't know how good we had it.

[-] buzziebee@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Yeah "They are all the same" clearly wasn't true then, let's not fall for it again. It's too damaging to the country.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 0 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Blair was New Labour, which I suppose you could call them, Tories Lite, but that's kind of unnuanced.

Regardless, "New Labour" essentially doesn't exist anymore.

[-] frazorth@feddit.uk 4 points 11 months ago

Not "unnuanced", completely unjustified.

Even New Labour has absolutely no relationship to the Tories, spending on services went up, standards of living went up, child poverty went down, the economy grew, everyone was better off.

The only down point for the UK was during the global recession caused by the Americans, but that can't be blamed on Labour.

Then the Tories came back, cut everything, reduced taxes, and it all went to shit.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

The problem with that comparison is that the Tories have been shifting more and more right for a decade now.

New Labour was supposed to combat Tory classic, not this new branch of wingnuts. You know the Tories of the '90s they did at least recognize that welfare was something they had to spend money on.

[-] frazorth@feddit.uk 2 points 11 months ago

I'm not that young, I remember the 80's and 90's.

Relative poverty levels increased in the 80's, were fairly flat in the early 90's and decreased while New Labour was in power. Afterwards it flattened and has been increasing.

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/improving-our-understanding-of-uk-poverty-will-require-better-data/

Just because Tory now is a complete and utter mess, doesn't make New Labour the same as Thatcher and Major.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 4 points 11 months ago

Don't use headlines as basis for your opinion, use his voting record to show what he really believes.

It's always a bad idea to let one party form your opinion of the opposing party.

[-] paradiso@lemm.ee 2 points 11 months ago

If only more had your common sense.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

It's so easy to be a political pundit right now, anyone can do it.

The Tories are going to lose the next election says top political commentator, a.k.a. bloke from down the pub.

[-] gmtom@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

The key thing to realise is this doesnt count the hundreds of seats the Tories will get for simply donning a red tie while keeping the same exact policies and mindset we've had for the last decade.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 0 points 11 months ago

You mean switching sides? I don't think anyone will trust them enough to vote them in if they do that

[-] gmtom@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago

No I mean that the current labour party shares the vast majority of their policies with the Tories, so are effectively the same party.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 0 points 11 months ago

How can you say they share the same policies when they obviously don't?

Immigration for one an area in which the Tories are normally strong but Labour are absolutely beating them over their head and telling them to just start processing the applications instead of messing around with this pointless deportation deal. So labour would process the applications. That's a massive difference right there.

[-] gmtom@lemmy.world 0 points 11 months ago

Because what is labour's actual policy on immigration? What you're describing is just rhetoric, what is their actual policy? Because if we assume the Rwanda plan stays dead, then there's no actual difference in their policy.

And then there's the response to the energy crisis, privatisation of the NHS, the EU, Gender recognition, Israel-palestine, power devolution, nationalising rail, and probably at least a few more I can't recall off the top of my head that are all major issues where Starmer is exactly the same as the Tories.

[-] autotldr 1 points 11 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The country’s top polling guru warned of the bleak situation faced by the Tories as they head into winter with the news dominated by infighting over the prime minister’s Rwanda deportation plan.

With Labour enjoying a consistent polling lead of close to 20 points, Prof Curtice said voters appear to have “stopped listening” to the Tories on the big issues.

On the major split currently looming in response to Mr Sunak’s plans, Prof Curtice wrote: “Divided parties rarely prosper at the polls.

But cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted that Mr Sunak’s government is “not contemplating” holding an early general election if the Rwanda bill is voted down.

A group of unnamed Tory MPs have told The Mail on Sunday that they would like to get rid of Mr Sunak – with some even keen to bring back Boris Johnson as leader.

Dubbed the “pasta plotters”, a small group of anti-Sunak MPs and strategists were said to have met at an Italian restaurant to plan “an Advent calendar of s***” for the current Tory leader over the Rwanda issue this December.

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this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2023
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