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More Americans expect Trump win against Biden: YouGov poll (thehill.com)

submitted 10 months ago by return2ozma@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] osarusan@kbin.social 9 points 10 months ago

This certainly tracks with me. I was familiar with the pro-Trump crowd on Facebook and Reddit for many years, but I never understood why liberals just failed to get the vote out until I came to lemmy/kbin. The sheer amount of people on the fediverse who are loudly choose to vote against their own interests due to a lack of understanding about how US politics work is a tragedy. It seems the right's war on civic education has reached its tipping point, and they no longer need to rely on policy or numbers; they just need to rely on the ignorance of those who might have voted against them. We seem doomed for a second Trump presidency because nobody wants to take responsibility for the future.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 6 points 10 months ago

I'm not sure why how Americans expect other people to vote matters.

[-] tsonfeir@lemm.ee 4 points 10 months ago

It’s because YouGov is bullshit and asks leading poll questions.

which orange skin man is most likely to win the presidency?

Headline:

4/5 people think Trump will win the presidency

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

A sense of hopelessness can depress opposition turnout.

[-] autotldr 0 points 10 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The majority of Americans, 57 percent, also expect Trump to be the GOP nominee.

That number is led by Republicans — 76 percent of whom say they think Trump will be the GOP nominee for president in 2024.

The number reflects the commanding lead Trump has among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — 65 percent say in this poll that they would support Trump if the primary were held today.

The GOP primary contest begins Monday with the Iowa caucuses, which Trump is heavily favored to win.

Democrats were less confident in Trump’s popularity, with only 45 percent of them saying they expected him to be the GOP nominee.

More than half of Independents, 53 percent, thought Trump would win the nomination, however.

The original article contains 272 words, the summary contains 122 words. Saved 55%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

[-] BoastfulDaedra@lemmynsfw.com 14 points 10 months ago

That... that has fuck all to do with the article title.

[-] AbouBenAdhem@lemmy.world 10 points 10 months ago

The actually relevant part:

Asked in a poll to predict who would win, “regardless of who you prefer,” 44 percent said Trump, 35 percent said Biden and 21 percent said they were not sure. They remain split, however, on which candidate they support — with 43 percent supporting Biden and 43 percent supporting Trump.

The most interesting thing, IMO, is that more people think Trump will win than actually support him, while for Biden it’s the opposite.

[-] BoastfulDaedra@lemmynsfw.com 1 points 10 months ago

Thanks. I'm honestly not sure how much I trust these polls anyway these days. They make for a thrill but for me, this seems pretty thoroughly cut-and-dry.

[-] tsonfeir@lemm.ee 0 points 10 months ago

Don’t trust YouGov, or any news outlet who references them. Or any user who posts shit like this.

[-] Fiver@lemm.ee 2 points 10 months ago

This is literally the worst summary bot of all time. It would be better to just take the first two paragraphs of any article. A chimpanzee with a digitizing pen could do better.

[+] over_clox@lemmy.world -33 points 10 months ago

Why in the flying donkey nuts do people think the only two options are elderly people gradually losing their marbles?

Jebus H Christ, there are other people you can vote for.

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 42 points 10 months ago

Imagine wanting a Trump victory this badly.

[+] over_clox@lemmy.world -26 points 10 months ago

I definitely don't care for the orange turnip, but that doesn't mean the only other option is Biden.

Anyone for Vermin Supreme?

Glad to see you here PugJesus, you're awesome! Hell I'd rather vote for you!

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 22 points 10 months ago

Hah, thanks, but the raw truth of it is that it's probably too late in the cycle for a third-party candidate with an actual chance to emerge (and I don't know who the hell would be a popular third party candidate in this environment). In a two-party system like our's, you either have to win a primary of one of the two parties (which, unfortunately, will be one of the two octogenarians), or hit the ground fucking running like Ross Perot, who came out swinging at 30%+ in polling early in the year.

Unfortunately, as it stands now, with Trump's supporters lockstep behind him, most third-party protest votes are likely to take from Biden, not Trump, and simply offer a better chance of a Trump victory. And that is... not a pretty future.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 10 months ago

One theory I've heard is the No Labels folks picking up Haley once she's out.

[+] return2ozma@lemmy.world -10 points 10 months ago

So then we really don't have a democracy since we're being forced to only vote for Trump or Biden, instead of other candidates we might align with better?

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 18 points 10 months ago

How does that translate to "we don't really have a democracy"?

If people didn't want Trump, they could very easily vote for anyone but him.

But a lot of people want Trump. That's the sad fucking fact of it. Which means that the best option is to coalesce around a single candidate in opposition who has the best chance of beating him - which most who aren't Trump bootlickers have agreed, however reluctantly, is Biden.

We have a democracy. It's just that half the people in it crave fascism, and the rest of us are trying to unite with whoever the fuck we can to stop it.

[-] Semi-Hemi-Demigod@kbin.social 2 points 10 months ago

Our democracy has a lot of very undemocratic things about it that put us in this situation: FPTP, the electoral college, the Reapportionment Act of 1929, and a ton of state policies.

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 2 points 10 months ago

While all of that is true, the fundamental problem being brought up is a democratic one - a near-majority of people want a shithead, so the only strategic thing to do, in a democratic election, is try to unite an actual majority around a non-shithead.

[-] Semi-Hemi-Demigod@kbin.social 1 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

As Republicans have proven twice: you don’t need a majority to win the presidency.

This isn’t to say people shouldn’t vote for Biden, just that it might still end badly.

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 1 points 10 months ago

I mean, that's true too, but I don't think our chances of winning the presidency with a minority or non-plurality of the vote are good. Non-fascists don't dominate the empty land that votes in our fucking system.

[+] return2ozma@lemmy.world -8 points 10 months ago

Guess the Dem party needs to work harder on actually giving voters something to vote for rather than something to vote against or they'll lose. Voters won't switch to vote Trump, they'll just stay home.

[-] PugJesus@kbin.social 19 points 10 months ago

"I don't like the boring old guy, therefore, welcome, fascism!"

Thanks, me and all the other people to be herded into the concentration camps thank you for your stunning dedication to democracy.

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world -3 points 10 months ago

Blame the Dems for not earning the votes if it happens.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 7 points 10 months ago

Sorry... we're supposed to blame Democrats if Republicans march us into death camps?

Were Jews supposed to blame the Weimar Republic for being sent to Auschwitz?

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world -1 points 10 months ago

If the Democrats don't excite enough voters and provide enough policies to get out the vote, then yes. They are up blame.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 2 points 10 months ago

Got it. So it wasn't the Nazis fault that they committed genocide either. The other parties didn't try hard enough to stop Hitler. Hitler did nothing wrong. Thanks for letting us know.

[-] osarusan@kbin.social 5 points 10 months ago

This says more about the character of the voter than it does about the Democratic Party's poor choice in candidates.

If you choose to not fight fascism because the alternative isn't perfection, you've made a very foolish choice.

[-] tsonfeir@lemm.ee -3 points 10 months ago

You’re not helping much by posting YouGov nonsense.

[-] GregorGizeh@lemmy.zip 15 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Is this news to you?

American politics is too binary to be actually considered democratic. This political system has obvious issues, the biggest one you just discovered for yourself.

If there is only a choice between a and b, with one of them being completely unacceptable, you end up being forced to vote for the other regardless of if they are only marginally better. Voting for a third party under that system is technically possible but only takes away votes from the less terrible choice.

[-] osarusan@kbin.social 4 points 10 months ago

So then we really don’t have a democracy

We have a kind of democracy

since we’re being forced to only vote for Trump or Biden, instead of other candidates we might align with better?

You're not forced to vote for one of them. But they are the only two for whom a vote matters.

You are free to not vote. You are free to vote for a third party. You are free to vote for a joke candidate. But if you care at all about the outcome of the election, there is absolutely a correct person to vote for. Until we elect a congress that will pass comprehensive voting reform laws, it doesn't matter who you align with; it only matters which of the "big two" you prefer to win.

The game we play has specific rules. If you care about the future, you should play by them. The hard work of changing the system into something better takes place in between elections, not during election years.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 16 points 10 months ago

Not who will win, no. Sure, you can vote for the 1%, 3%, 5% candidates.

The winner will be either the Republican or the Democrat.

[-] osarusan@kbin.social 13 points 10 months ago

There are plenty of people you can vote for, but there are only two people who might win. Vote intelligently. Vote like the future depends on it.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 9 points 10 months ago

Which one has a chance of winning?

[-] over_clox@lemmy.world 1 points 10 months ago

I don't want either of them old mofos to win, we need someone younger like in their 50's or 60's or so, with relevant political experience and the better interest of the people and the environment in mind of course.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 3 points 10 months ago

Such as? Give me a name. Who has a chance of winning?

[-] over_clox@lemmy.world 2 points 10 months ago

I'd vote for Vermin Supreme. Everyone needs a free pony and good oral hygiene.

[-] Badeendje@lemmy.world 1 points 9 months ago

In the primaries maybe, in the general you have 2 options, voting anything else increases the chance of a trump win. Which is objectively worse for everyone.

this post was submitted on 16 Jan 2024

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