I think the cause and effect here is completely backwards. The western imperial strategy is not shit because they don't know how to think properly about things. It is shit because empire is a fundamentally unsustainable institution. In the latter years when the rot sets in, the empire has trouble coping. Unlike the early years, every mistake, every downside to even a rational strategy hurts.

For instance, it is argued here that the west lost the war in Ukraine. But the principle imperialist, the United States has gained geopolitically in many ways. Europe is decoupled from Russia and China. The war business is booming. Russia is too occupied to help the Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians and has expended quite a lot of military strength and will likely have even worsened demographic issues in the future.

Certainly the imperialists miscalculated their enemies abilities to resist. The narrative they present to the public becomes increasingly convoluted and contradictory. But I don't think that can be used to argue that the imperialists will loose because of metaphysical thinking. They will loose because no empire is eternal.