Valdair

joined 2 years ago
[–] Valdair@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I think they meant more like they wouldn't have been able to afford the same house 4 years later, due to appreciation of the house, the increase in property taxes on that appreciation, and higher mortgage rates to boot. That or they had a variable APR loan.

The former case happened to us and is how my coworkers and I sometimes discuss the housing market - house values increase so fast where we are, buying a month later would have gotten us an appreciably worse home. A month later, worse again. Prices were increasing 25+% YoY. If we hadn't locked in when we did (Dec 2020) I'm not sure we would have found a place. The mortgage rates seem to not matter because so many of the buyers scooping up houses are older families with lots of money buying investment properties, or whole ass corporations (often foreign corporations) willing to pay 20% over asking, in cash, and waive inspection, to lock out any other prospective buyers.

Insurance is about 50% more than when we bought the house and taxes are maybe 10% higher due to rate increases and the increasing value. We would barely be able to afford half the house we're in if we bought today.

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago

The only reason we switched from doing our own to paying a CPA is when my wife started operating her own business. This was more to have someone to ask questions about making sure she covers all of her tax obligations who can answer authoritatively and back us up if anything comes back to us in the future (since she is sole prop. and going it alone). We paid $200 the first year, and considering turbotax would have been about that much, getting our taxes filed for us was practically just a bonus. She charges a little more now, but it's still worth it IMO just to not have to deal with doing the actual paperwork and having someone who will help us out if anything does come back to us. I would say anyone who just has W2 income and maybe some stock sales doesn't have a complicated enough situation to warrant a CPA, and should just use FreeTaxUSA (and hopefully over the next couple years, the auto filing program with the government will eliminate the need for that, too).

 

I'm picking one up secondhand after typing on one at a meet, and I'm curious how people feel about all the foam. Did you like it with the case foam, plate foam, PE foam, all, none? I'm getting the meme aluminum plate and planning on using light linear switches.

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago

it feels like treading water and then rather suddenly having a credible chance.

That's a good reminder. Just haven't had one of those years yet. Thanks for the perspective.

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 2 points 2 years ago

I didn't think an expense ratio of 0.08% was considered high?

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (4 children)

Everyone always quotes the growth of the S&P500, but isn't pretty much no one 100% invested for their entire retirement in the S&P500? My 401k is in a target date 2055 and my Roth is split between FXAIX (S&P500, 55%), FSPSX (international, 20%), FSMAX (extended market, 15%), FXNAX (bonds, 10%). It's a little conservative but not that conservative.

Fidelity says my Roth 1Y returns are 10.8% compared to S&P 500's 10.3%. It says my 1Y returns on my target date 2055 are 18.0%. Neither of those numbers can be accurate so it's hard to know what to read in to them. If I try to calculate my returns in a very simple way (take current value, subtract contributions from the last 12 months, which can be easily looked up, call that number X, then find the growth rate that takes the account value I had as Nov. 1st last year and compound that at different rates until it produces X as of now - this gives an upper bound on returns, since the returns of the various money deposited throughout the year at random times is treated as not growing at all), I get 1%. And that's 1% before inflation.

I know the S&P500 is 10% YoY over really long time scales, and I also know that number is like +/-15% year to year. But it feels like my fund picks are pretty normal yet they're not worth any more than what I put in to them since I started saving. Because of that, I'd have to have a 30+% savings rate in order to catch up to the "X salary by Y age" rule because the assumptions over the growth rate of the accounts are wildly off in the years since I started investing.

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 10 points 2 years ago (12 children)

Thoughts? I have to admit I've been nervous about this for a while now, with "once in a generation" events happening on a seemingly yearly basis, I started saving for retirement in 2019 and it seems like things have essentially traded sideways since then - my accounts are barely worth more than the money I've put in to them. The article is quite gloomy.

 

For four decades, patient savers able to grit their teeth through bubbles, crashes and geopolitical upheaval won the money game. But the formula of building a nest egg by rebalancing a standard mix of stocks and bonds isn’t going to work nearly as well as it has.

 

I've been speaking to our VP about keyboards - he was curious about the boards I had lying around and mentioned he's looking for something lower impact, as he suspects he's starting to get arthritis. He types a ton, it's basically his entire job to write proposals and emails.

I don't know if he's quite ready to jump off the deep end for something like a ZSA Voyager, and most likely he'll end up trying a mass produced scissor switch board with a numpad first... but are there any other recommendations in between a $100 mass produced logitech ergo board and a $350+ ZSA that are ortho & low profile?

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

The match to the mat is really nice!

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 9 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

I am surprised the age would be so young. My dad retired at 67 but went right back to work a year later, still working now (71). Health insurance do be expensive. I wonder how this statistic would capture someone like him. My mother was working until she died at 60, but would have likely been in a similar situation, trying to keep working as long as possible, certainly was not looking at retirement within a year or two.

My wife's parents are younger (late 50s) but in the same boat, there is no path to retirement for them and they plan to just keep working. The only people I know who managed to retire by any conventional definition are or were Silent Generation.

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 8 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (5 children)

Also if a quick Google result is anything to go on, Apple sells hundreds of millions of iPhones a year. 3% of that is still a fuckload of people and IMO proves there is a market for it. Just maybe not a market that needs yearly attention. You also have to remember that's split between tons of SKUs, so you would expect all of them to hover in the single digits to low teens.

I got my wife a 12 Mini - she loves it. The battery life is absolutely the worst thing about it, but it sounds like the 13 Mini was a huge upgrade in that regard and I had hopes it would continue to get better with future versions.

Something else that may not be taken in to account - the kinds of people buying the Mini are I would wager on a longer upgrade period than the kinds of people who buy e.g. a base iPhone or Pro model. The kind of person buying a Mini I would bet is closer to the kind of buyer that has historically bought the SE - they probably only upgrade every 3 or 4 years rather than the more stereotypical 2. Pro numbers are also skewed by the hyper fans who upgrade yearly and therefore show up in the stats a lot more, even though they're both a firm Apple customer.

There is also this interesting note at the end of the article:

"Other reports ... overwhelmingly presented the same picture of low ‌iPhone 14‌ Plus sales, to the extent that Apple was forced to slash production, suggesting that the low sales of the ‌iPhone 12 mini‌ and ‌iPhone 13‌ mini may not have been caused by the device's size after all."

I think the Mini should become the new SE. Keep it on 2+ year old CPU, keep it 60Hz, at least the form factor and design language will match the rest of the lineup unlike now where the SE has a design from 2016. That would be perfect for people like my wife, who want the smallest cheapest phone that's technically an iPhone, and are only going to upgrade every few years.

[–] Valdair@kbin.social 1 points 2 years ago

Act 2 - Too many weird issues to count with Halsin in act 2. Thankfully I was able to talk to him at camp, get him to go meet me at the Inn and then do the Defend The Portal thing. Then he disappeared for a while, had nothing to talk about at my camp, and the "Show on map" button for his quest didn't go anywhere. Thankfully it did resolve itself later at the end of the act, I think it might have been caused because I did the hide & seek with the cursed tiefling boy "too early" in act 2?

Early act 3 - The booby-trapped toys quest, after getting the Fist officials to realize the toys are trapped, you get a quest update to go confront the toymaker. Weirdly the only options are kill him or let him leave, not turn him in? I let him leave, he vanished and the quest never updated so I still have it.

Late act 3 - All quests related to Kithrak Voss and the Orphic hammer - I spoke to Voss at the start of act 3, then to Raphael, then Voss again. Many hours later, stole the hammer, went to meet up with Voss in the sewers. He would talk to me, but he just said "Follow me to the tap room", and then he never left the spot. Tried talking to him on all characters, going to camp, reloading, etc. etc. I think this one might have broken him because I normally have at least one summon out (celestial or elemental from Shadowheart, Wyll or Gale) and NPCs go insane if you have a summon they interpret as hostile. I was able to progress the quest but maybe this interrupted him somehow. Anyhow it would have cost me so many hours to go back to a save before that by the time I troubleshot everything that I just gave up. You can still break Orpheus free at the end and get Voss's help, but you never get the greatsword (which is a shame because Baldur's Giantslayer literally does not fucking work on the ONLY two mobs in the game that qualify for its bonus damage after the point where you receive it).

 

I'm doing a black/red TKL build for the Milkyway Half-Blade keycap GB that should be delivering by the end of the year. I've never done a full aesthetic match on a build before - I've got a custom red ano aluminum plate on order and I'd like the switches to match too, at least for initial build+photos. I'm mill-maxing the board so I'll probably put these switches in something else since my wife is the main TKL user and prefers clickies.

Here is the pantone swatch of the keycaps. I'm already going to have a lot of black in the case and red in the PCB+plate so if the switches adopted some of the grey-blue I think that'd be neat, but any other mix of red and black could work too. Worst case I will probably just find the closest weight, highest rated all-black linear I can find.

So any good recommendations? Ones I'm aware of that seem well reviewed and close in weight but don't match color-wise are:

  • Gateron Oil Kings (~55g) I have these in a DM Austin on alu and know I love them
  • Gateron Ink Box Pink (~50g) I don't know much about these except the ink blacks are very highly recommended
  • Durock Linear L1/Yellow (~55g)
  • Cherry MX Black (~55g) the OG
  • NK_ Cream, Cream Pro & Dream (all ~55g) I hear good things, especially the pre-broken-in Dreams sound nice
  • Everglide Aqua King Linear (~55g) Don't know much about it but saw at the top of a few recommendation lists for linears
  • Alpacas (~62g) popular mostly for BCPs I think?
  • Divinikey Oni (~43g) I've heard these in one build and they sounded incredible but they seem to be perpetually out of stock, and wrong color
 

I have been trying to make threads on wayfarershaven.eu, lemmy.ml, beehaw.org and lemmy.world. For weeks. Comments work but links/photos/posts do not. They obviously never actually make it to the instance... sometimes I can delete them, sometimes I can't.

Initially I was just testing on lemmy.world and assumed it had to do with their constantly going down due to bot and DDOS attacks, but it seems like this must be a kbin problem.

It's becoming pretty tiring. I don't really want to bother participating anymore if I'll never be able to post anywhere other than kbin.social.

 

What are you invested in? Target date funds, ETFs, individual stocks? Do you think of your portfolio as aggressive, neutral, or conservative?

It occured to me the other day in a discussion about lifestyle creep that a lot of discussions about retirement assume you earn at the 10- or 20-year historical average returns of the S&P500, but it would be very unusual to be 100% in the S&P500 for your entire working life. So, the effect of small changes in cash infusions (i.e. splurging on large but infrequent purchases) is lessened when you consider that most people will be invested more conservatively and real returns will be lower.

So what do you have setup?

Currently about 70% of my retirement account value is in a 401k, which is 100% in FFLDX, a Fidelity target retirement 2055 fund. I'm not as pleased with the returns on this. It says I'm up 11% 1Y but I frankly don't believe it because it's worth barely more than the cash that's been put in to it in that time. Our fund picks for our 401k are kind of crap. The other 30% account value is in a Roth IRA, which I have distributed as:

55% FXAIX (FID S&P 500 ETF)

20% FSPSX (FID international ETF)

15% FSMAX (FID domestic whole market ETF)

10% FXNAX (FID bond ETF)

I would consider this overall rather neutral, maybe even conservative considering my age (31). What do you think?

 

The advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding autos, sales rose a robust 1%, also against a 0.4% forecast. Both readings were the best monthly gains since January.

It seems as long as consumer spending remains strong the risk of recession is low despite the rapid Fed rate hikes.

 

Today is Montblanc Heritage 1912 <B CI> with Aurora Black, taking notes at work. What about you?

 

Vehicles under $15k are 1.6% of the market, and their share of the market has dropped over 90% since 2019. The old advice that you can get a beater and drive it in to the ground for $5k hasn't been true for years but it still seems pervasive in personal finance spaces.

 

These are photos from when I first took delivery of my Nakaya, an aka tamenuri (red urushi lacquer) Neo-Standard, from back in 2016. The nib was an SF with added flex cuts, and though it ran dry fairly quick, when it was primed it wrote in an almost brush-like manner. It was very unique, but difficult to use every day, which is part of why I got rid of it.

 

The big, beautiful nib of the Montblanc 149 is what first captured my interest in fountain pens. Many years later, and many pens tried, I have a handful I really just love writing with and I still think the nib designs are some of the most beautiful.

1950s Montblanc Slimline, XXF
Modern Montblanc 146, BB CI
1960s Montblanc 149, EF
Montblanc Heritage 1912, B CI

 

Gross domestic product was expected to increase at a 2% annualized pace in the second quarter.

In the face of persistent calls for a recession, the economy showed surprising resilience despite a series of Federal Reserve interest rate increases that most Wall Street economists and even those at the central bank expect to cause a contraction.

view more: next ›