Has it?
Yep.
You added a lot of weasel words
The point is that Trumps image can change, even for his core supporters.. I obviously have no clue exactly how many of his supporters were dissilusioned, which is why I will use "weasel words" (aka estimates and guesses)..
I hear a lot of "this will surely be the end of him"
I doubt that there will ever be the "one thing" where everyone suddenly realises they have been duked.. Obviously that's not how it works..
if martyr figures were that powerful
Ever heard of George Floyd? Trayvon Martin? Eric Garner? Those people weren't even influencial to the left wing as a movement when they were alive (unlike Kirk), yet they still fueled one of the biggest movements in recent years.
start martyring themselves?
Some people do that, but in order to be powerful, they have to have been killed by the enemy you want to mobilize people against.. Which is why the right will do whatever they can to blame this on "the radical left", no matter what.
I don't think Martyrs tend to be all that useful.
I think you are incredibly wrong on this point.
one less active propagandist
Pretty insignificant considering the countless other right wing propagandists out there who do pretty much the same thing. Also, events like this have a tendency to inspire more propagandists and radicalize people.
power vacuum and loss of leadership within turning point
Possible, but again, tp is not THAT important. They have turned a significant part of the youth and have a likeminded regime in power that continues to concolidate power. And they can an will use this event to consolidate more.
chilling effect on this sort of rhetoric
That's not gonna happen..
impulsive and poorly planned 'retaliations' causing further damage
Damage to whom? You don't know because the potential results are unpredictable.
reminding those 'in power' of their mortality
Like Trump's failed assassinations?
Not sure this is true. When people have more percieved short term problems (war, job security, inflation, etc), percieved long term problems become less important, especially if the proposed solutions have a negative impact on the short term problems.