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Polls haven't been accurate for years and Silver takes and massages them to come up with his predictions. Always make sure you VOTE, no matter what any polls or pundits are saying.
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The Center Square is a conservative publication. Nate Silver currently works for Polymarket, an online betting company funded by Peter Thiel and crypto bros. So it's to both of their advantages to paint a picture that looks better for Trump. Remember, those who want to get trump in power need magats to believe that trump will surely win and that if he doesn't, it can only because the election was rigged by evil democrats. That way they give cover for corrupt red state election boards to refuse to certify their votes and red state legislatures to challenge results in the courts, force recounts and delays, certify and send invalid electors next January, and have a cohort of people ready and willing to fight or be violent if needed.
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Yes, the election is close, so make sure you VOTE no matter how optimistic or pessimistic you may feel about all this and no matter what state you live in, no matter whether it's a red, blue, or swing state. The margins need to be as large as possible in every state and the popular vote margin also as huge as possible so there is no question of the will of the people.
JD Vance: "Stolen McDonald's valor!"
If the sun were to go out it would take 8 minutes for the light to stop but 13 years for the sound to stop.
Kind of like when you kill an enderman. 🤔
If Trump gets back in office, this is how it will be everywhere. He and his minions will do whatever the hell they want and nobody better stand in their way, rules and laws will be meaningless (in both ways--they don't have to obey them and you can be arrested even if you don't break any).
The thing is, whether Harris would win without your vote or not, you still have to vote for all the other offices too, so we can have a Dem majority in the House and Senate, and more Dems at your State level in the legislature, governor's office, AG, election board, school board, etc. Those things are just as important as POTUS. Not to mention that even in states Harris winds up losing, the margins need to be made as small as possible to show how much support she really has in all states (very important for both parties to see this--it impacts what policies get implemented, what they think they can get away with), also for future funding allocation of candidates by the parties, etc.
Bottom line is that voting is tremendously important to do, no matter what! Not voting just has too many negative consequences.
And if they try to come back here later we can tell them our borders are closed!
If he replaces Vance, it'll have to be Nancy Mace, the only one left in the potential pick pool whose one-syllable name ends in "ce".
David Plouffe, an adviser to former President Barack Obama who recently joined the Harris campaign, posted on social media: "Now, he seems only comfortable in a cocoon, asking his happy place Fox to host a Trump rally and call it a debate. Maybe he can only handle debating someone his own age.
Exactly. Can you imagine trying to conduct a debate with him at one of his rallies?
Moderator: Would you choose the shark or electrocution?
Trump: I'll take electrocution every time
Harris: I am the shark
Would that cushion the blow?
Yes! It's the total votes statewide that determines the winner (POTUS and Senator), no matter which areas of the state they come from. Besides that, a showing of more blue votes in red areas makes a bigger statement to powers-that-be, campaign analysts, etc. than blue votes in blue areas. Represent!
And as everyone else is saying, vote blue for every office on the ballot. The state, county, and city levels are just as important as the national level if not more so. Vote in every election no matter what, even if no one you voted for wins, it matters how close the races are so Dems know where to concentrate their efforts.
In the past, the coup attempt would have barred him from running again because when he was impeached after it, the Senate would have unanimously convicted him which would have disqualified him. But since the entire republican party is complicit, they acquitted him instead, which allowed him to run again.
The entire republican party and 2/3 of the Supreme Court are completely on board with project 2025 establishing an authoritarian christian dominionist regime, which means the normal government checks and balances have already been corrupted and neutralized.
We the voters are the only remaining barrier that can stop it, the only way to do that is keep the Democratic party in power. We did it in 2020, partly in 2022 (we lost the House), we have to do it again now in 2024, and we'll have to keep doing it every election until they are finally destroyed as a viable party. We've been barely hanging on with the thinnest of margins.
They can keep trying again and again--we can only fail once (like we did in 2016). One more failure and they win for good because they'll implement Project 2025 and it's over.
According to Taylor Swift's post, Trump and his propagandists posting fake pictures of Swift implying she was endorsing him is one reason she went ahead and came out with this statement endorsing Harris now, to refute the fake stuff they are circulating. So their stupid plan massively backfired.
Maybe Swift would have come out to endorse Harris at some point anyway, but doing it now gives people more time to get registered before the deadline.