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I feel like the most viable path to a third party at this point:
yes, already very unlikely here, although it'd help Dems with reelection so under them it's possible if they get rid of the filibuster. Gop would never. 2) Splinters make a better third party, I'm thinking the "RINO"s or MAGA folk. Maybe the progressive wing of Democrars. The current third parties are pretty bad as they are given they don't seem to target places they could actually win. 3) Said faction gets more traction and the model gets tested for a few elections until it's more normal. New paries emerge, etc.
It ain't happening mostly cause of 1, either because the political capital would be too expensive or because it's not ultimately in their interest. The only way 1 can happen is if it becomes a major issue and they've got much more lower hanging fruit, even in election rules (I'd be happy just having electrical college changed to popular vote).
National Election Reform would be great, but that would require we actually have national elections, which we don't. :)
It's not even a matter of 50 state elections... each election precinct is essentially it's own little fiefdom at this point, with officials who BELIEVE they're free to say "I aint gonna certify!" even if the State Secretary of State will put the screws to them if they do.
Holy shit you're so right on all the districts being treated like a fiefdom. I like to think i keep up with politics but this idea has never crossed my mind. Im going to be looking at my local elections closer now.