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Iran: “the phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended”
(www.aljazeera.com)
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this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2024
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I believe it. They're primarily using missiles that take a predictable, ballistic arc, which makes them very easy for the Iron dome system to intercept. Furthermore, Iran's responses so far have seemed very carefully measured so that only a few missiles get through the iron dome. Based on previous strikes, it seems like they could overwhelm Israel just through sheer numbers, yet they haven't.
Fuck, theres so much bullshit going on that, quite frankly, I wouldn't be too surprised to find out that the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, etc were working with Israel to maintain power. They fire a handful of easily-intercepted rockets at Israel, Israel kills a bunch of Palestinians, the leaders get to stay in power while their citizens are too distracted by hate to look up and realize they're being pissed on. I think that's also why everyone outside of Israel is freaking out. They thought they had a deal, but Bibi tore it up because he was at risk of losing power.
Israel is completely outnumbered by a significant margin. If the countries around them got sick and tired enough of Israel, they could gang up and possibly have a real chance of winning; yet for all the hate they have for Israel, they don't. Why?
Because Isreal has the US in their corner. It's really that simple.
I'm not entirely sure I buy that. Israel is a tiny country, and Iran was able to get weapons through the combined AA systems of the US, Jordan, France, Britain and Israel. Granted, that was a much larger strike than usual, but it showed that they may have the ability to do it again, and possibly in a larger quantity.
Think about it this way though. Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, they all have stated goal to kill all the Jews (I shouldn't have to say this, but that's disgusting and I do not support it). They could probably just fuck with the tail fins on their missiles or put the guidance systems on a bungie cord to make them fly erratically, which would likely help them get through the anti-missile systems; international law against indiscriminate weapons be damned. They've already shown that they don't give a shit about the geneva convention, so what's stopping them from firing drunken missiles at Israel?
Edit: I forgot to say, any military has a delay before it can project it's full power in response to a conflict. If Israel is attacked faster than they can react, then they'd be fucked. That's why I don't think the US is as big a deal as you might think. The US would probably have to move more troops to support Israel and pray the troops currently stationed there would be enough to hold everyone off.
I think you're seriously underestimating the strength, size and funding of the Israeli military, combined with the significant presence the US has in the area. They're likely to be quite capable of holding off a full scale assault by an Iranian lead coalition until more forces can be deployed.
Isreal is a very paranoid, highly militarized state. There is no attack that will be "faster than they can react." They're basically on a war footing all the time, and especially now with the recent ratcheting up of tensions.
Iran has very few strategic or tactical advantages in this situation.
I suppose... Just... Trying to make sense of it all.
Because last time it didn't go very well.
That was nearly 70yrs ago though. Not saying you don't have a point, but... that was nearly 70yrs ago.
Here's a decent article on this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/stopping-iran-attack-would-have-forced-israel-to-use-sophisticated-and-expensive-defences
This part irks me quite a bit. Like in the retaliation against the US after the assassination of an Iranian general invited to a diplomatic talk, Iran seems to avoid causing casualties to show strength, w.o. pushing for escalation. This is quite opposite to Israel who makes a point of indiscriminately slaughtering thousands of civilians in their actions, since their goal is to escalate into a great war in West Asia, where the US has to do their dirty work.
Israel has the US in its pocket, meanwhile there are plenty of hawks in the US who would love to go after Iran so there's a huge imbalance. Iranian military responses are carefully choreographed to show defiance and stop short of escalation whilst Israel is running around doing whatever the hell it wants and ignoring the US.