486

Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml to c/politics@lemmy.world

90 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Florida's voter registration deadline is on the earlier side in a few days on Monday. Make sure to register to vote! https://vote.gov/register

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -3 points 1 month ago

My point is that you cannot be certain about it

Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.

If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 month ago

That's not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can't be sure?

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

You just lack reading comprehension.

The quote is:

best most recent structural bias measurement

The previous comments said, "the best most recent estimate of structural bias", which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I've seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.

I get it. You've got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 month ago

My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful

Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -4 points 1 month ago

Is the cocoon warm?

this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024

486 points (97.1% liked)

politics

19096 readers

3230 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News