Current trajectory estimates are more like +2.5C to +3C by 2100 based on existing policy. We've actually managed to move the trajectory downward even though we obviously have a lot to go. Every little bit counts. It is far less binary than this overly simplistic tweet is suggesting
Excessive claims like this end up demotivating people and make them want to give up when we can reduce the damage each time we move our trajectory down by 0.1C
If the filibuster is removed, it is also possible to get through with 50+VP as tie breaker or 51. The filibuster being removed is not as unlikely as you may think since Republicans right now are getting closer and closer towards defacto removing the filibuster. There currently are narrow ways around the filibuster (reconsideration is one big one) that are supposed to have a bunch of limitations, but they are testing the waters in ignoring violations of those limitations. The senate parliamentarian is the one who makes rulings about if something violates their clauses, but their opinion can be ignored by a strict majority via the "nuclear option"
A month ago, Republicans used the nuclear option to ignore the senate parliamentarian ruling that the Congressional Review Act would not allow them to skip the filibuster to remove California's EPA waivers (see here).
As I write this Republicans are currently trying to play another different a different trick about some of the stuff in the Big Beautiful Bill. Dems have been challenging a bunch of provisions and getting the parliamentarian to most of the time rule they are in violation of the Byrd rule. But they are also trying to challenge the whole bill as violating the Byrd rule's limit that a bill passed via reconsecration cannot increase the deficit over a ten-year period. Republicans are playing an accounting trick to claim it doesn't. They know the parliamentarian is unlikely to agree with them, so they are currently trying to prevent dems from even being able to ask the parliamentarian about it
Yep, and even larger can be overcome too. If you look AOC's 2018 primary upset, she was outspent by over 10x
Insane outspending can be overcome. Obviously it makes the fight harder, but money is not everything
Because they massively outspent Zohran in the primary and still lost. Vote because you can still overcome this. They want us to give up and think we can't. Don't do their dirty work for them
There's a primary for his now vacant seat this Saturday if anyone here is in that district (VA-11) and wants to avoid a repeat. Special election is in September
There are some progressives running in that primary
Vote in every primary. The establishment can't fight as hard as they did for Cuomo everywhere. There are lot of primaries across the country that many people don't even know are happening
For instance, there's one for the US House seat in VA-11 (Most of Fairfax county + Fairfax City) this Saturday prior to the September special election to replace Gerry Connolly who died from cancer
Overperformance compared to polls and the money stacked against him. He's not just won the primary*, but won it big. Few polls had him winning. Even the polls that had him winning overall had him losing the first round of ranked choice by a fair margin. He's just won the 1st round by like 7%
(for reference about the money)
* technically the final rounds of ranked choice aren't yet tabulated, but it is exceedingly unlikely he given that the person in #3 is a progressive who told his supporters to rank Zohran #2. Cuomo has already conceded
Hope does not mean blind hope. It does not mean you will always win. It means knowing that you can
Always try. No matter how hopeless it seems, you always have the possibility to win a seemingly impossible fight. This a shining example of overcoming and winning big
Giving up is a guaranteed loss. That is what they want us to do. Never give in
Ah yep looks like they updated their title again. Not sure I like that it's vaguer about it all with no names listed but at least it's less judgemental
They poured millions and million and massively outspent Zohran and still lost. Zohran had no name recognition, and was virtually a nobody in February. The establishment worked hard against him and still lost. They rolled out shameless endorsement of Cuomo after shameless endorsement (like Bill Clinton, apparently). The establishment didn't lose for a lack of effort. This could happen anywhere next
He's also signed paperwork to run as an independent in the general election in case he lost the primary.
"I said he won the primary election," Cuomo told the outlet. "I said I wanted to look at the numbers and the ranked-choice voting to decide about what to do in the future, because I'm also on an independent line."
Though he probably expected it to be far closer than this. Zohran massively outperformed polls. No polls had him winning the first round let alone by this much (even the few polls that had Zohran winning)
If there were no ranked choice, he still would have won in this case. He won the plurality of the votes on the first round (unexpectedly and a massive over performance of the polls)
Granted ranked choice may have made more people feel safer to consider him in the first place, but still worth noting here