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this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2023
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If Joe Manchin can't win in WV as a Democrat, no one can. If he wins as an Independent and still caucuses with Democrats, that doesn't change much.
He might run for President with No Labels and hand the presidency to Trump.
Why would that benefit Trump? Outside of WV, no one's fooled him by. Everyone knows he's a selfish conservative. He'd split the conservative vote if anything.
Oh, we know full well who he is and who he represents (himself and his financial interests). The problem is that we have no other democratic candidate who could possibly beat whichever Republican ghoul makes it to the general election.
We're kinda stuck with him and have been for years. If we voted him out, his replacement would be solidly red and worse.
Are centrists unreliable voters or something?
Extremely unlikely, he uses tough rhetoric because he knows who his WV voters are, but in the end Manchin is solidly pro-Biden
Yeah, he's running in an R+22 state that voted Trump over Biden by 40 points. He knows the D brand is dogshit in his state, and so he's gonna drag it through the mud over the next year to give himself as much breathing room as possible. People don't understand how blood red West Virginia is nowadays. The best way to make his comings and goings absolutely irrelevant is to hold Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, and Montana, and potentially take Florida and Texas. This map is absolutely brutal, as Dems are running to keep several R-leaning states, and Republicans aren't running to keep anything D-leaning.
He can’t win as a democrat. He’s behind Jim Justice 32-54. That’s a 22 point spread. He loses 16 points if he goes I. This is him trying to save a flagging campaign.
Honestly, I wish he’d go I and the dems pull his committees and his funds, and send them to races they have a chance of winning with candidates who will not extort them in an ongoing power play.
Exactly this. Anyone who replaces him would likely be as MAGA a Republican as they come, vs Manchin who supports much of the Democratic agenda. We want Manchin to keep his seat, and we want more Democrats in the Senate so he and Sinema can't block anything single handedly.
Speaking of, I'm all in on Colin Allred beating Ted Cruz next year, I think he's a much better candidate than Beto was last time around.
Yeah, all the cheerleading for Manchin to get out is unbelievably shortsighted. As soon as people get their wish, we lose control of the Senate and Mitch "30 second pause" McConnell runs it again. That's what people want?
IMO I think the real problem is the resources. Is the DNC wasting any resources backing manchin that could possibly help win an actual democrat in a contested campaign? I mean I get a half democrat is better than a full republican, and we can't get a real democrat in his state. But is there an opprotunity cost of keeping these at best half democrats, on resources that could be used to get an actual democratic majority that doesn't require gutting the hell out of major changes to get our own partys vote.