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this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2024
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Serious questions here. The world, by design, has arid zones around the tropics. If we heat up the planet, does that mean deserts pop up in other places? Like, will the Sahara and Cape Town turn green, but Spain and Italy and Argentina turn to desert? And if that’s the case, will hurricanes more often frequent New England, but less frequent Florida? Also, isn’t one of the major reasons we have hurricanes in the first place due to Sahara seeding them? If less desert then…?
Yes.
IIRC in the green Sahara scenarios the arid band moves north into the Mediterranean, and so southern Europe and North Africa get messed up. On other continents, it's already getting noticeably weird and dry where I am on the western great plains.
There's still a lot of uncertainty about whether agriculture, for example, will benefit, worsen or break even due to climate change. Total global precipitation increases, but so does variability both through time and location, and then the heat and the CO2 itself has an effect. It's all very complicated.
A good chunk of this current hurricane season just didn't happen, and it was all down to unusual conditions in Africa. On the flip side, each hurricane will be more intense due to hotter seas (which, again, we're probably seeing right now).
There's a pattern here. A different climate isn't bad, per se. It's the rapid change to a different climate. This sort of thing is supposed to take hundreds of thousands of years, not a century or two. As a result we're creating a mass extinction.
I don't have a good answer to your question, but I do know lengthy droughts in certain areas are a likely fallout from climate change, so I'd say that would be a good possibility.