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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Had Trump won in 2020, he'd have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it's crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he'd be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there's a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn't know how much they could get away with. They've seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there's another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn't John Kerry, it's Carter.
I've heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
Biden got one, Ketanji Brown Jackson, in 2022. And had Trump been president during this time, Thomas and Alito would have probably retired after Dobbs.
Alright fair point then my bad. I think the rest of it stands well enough though
Yeah, out of everything, his Supreme Court nominations are the longest lasting. They will outlive him and be a lasting influence for most of our lives. Every unconstitutional thing Republicans want to do will be handed to them by the SC. So long for checks and balances.
Not if they die 🤷♂️
Of course, which is the risk for at least Sotomayor this term. If Trump gets 3 more nominations, it could be possible that he'd be able to have 6 justices with an average age in their 50s, with plenty of time to continue the chaos.
Yup that’s my exact fear.
I agree, hindsight is 20/20 and if he would have just won then, this would have all been over yesterday.
But now, we're 75 days from being an actual dictatorship, and when we help Russia flatten Europe we'll also be an axis power.
Every time I think we're in the worst possible timeline the universe says "bet" and throws us another curveball.
I'm getting really fucking tired of living in an era that will be fascinating to read about in future history books.
I compared these threads to the one in 2016 announcing the win. Mostly different vibes(more awe and surprise and 'maybe it won't be so bad' and less horror), but two things in common.
Also 2020 Trump was still struggling with Hispanics. The 2015 rhetoric really hurt him there. Too fucking late to put that genie back in the bottle. It's gone man, solid gone
I don't understand how the rhetoric this time didn't hurt him there tbh, he didn't change it really
He stopped saying Mexicans or Hispanics and started saying Illegals for the most part. Boom.
Also I've seen a lot of 'first they came for the socialists' type posting about that. In a fucked up way that's actually the outcome the Democrats want. The other option is the Hispanics became 'honorary whites', the next Italian or Irish. Hispanic isn't even really a race in the sense that black or white or asian(or native american, technically those two are one race sorta long story), it's Mixed, European White - Slave Black - Native Mesoamerican, just mixed and mixing with other mixed so long you can't really pick it out. We usually call the whiter ones Hispanics and the ones with a lot more Native or Black mestizo or creole or...Native and Black. Hispanic Culture is heavily christian and European influenced, it can be integrated into that coalition without too much trouble.
If the established second generation Hispanics settle into reliable Republican or even just the men, that's a Southern Strategy tier realignment. The Democrats are fucked for a generation. Outgroups don't stay Outgroups forever, and we know how European Cultured Religious 'in-groups' do in the USA.
Good point. Out of many things to blame for this, I didn't think about him losing 2020. Who would have thought back then, that him winning would be better in the long run. He would be finished and disgraced by now. We truly are living in the worst timeline.
Think Carter. Nixon had a populist wave born out of the DNCs 1968 disaster destroying the Kennedy lead operation dating back years, it was big. Then a huge scandal knocked the wind out of him, populist wave was down, Democrats won with a safe white guy, mission accomplished? Except the economy imploded and a ton of foreign wars happened and everyone blamed 'histories greatest monster' and the Republican populist wave that would have died with Nixon got a round to breathe and the Democrats took the fall for the disaster in Carters term. 8 years of Reagan followed and then 4 years of Reagan 2, Texas Boogaloo. Except Reagan was old and JD Vance isn't.