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this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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Data is Beautiful
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For fucks sake, THE VOTES ARE NOT ALL COUNTED YET. It is too early to be making graphs like this, its just misleading.
As of right now, California is reporting about 72% of the expected total, at about 12 million votes. If the ratio is maintained, we can expect about 2.8 million more votes for Harris from California alone. And Trump can expect another 1.8 million from California.
There are a couple hundred thousand votes to count in each of Oregon, Maryland, and DC.
I mean most states have less than 1% of votes left to count. What change are you expecting from this graph?
Millions more votes from California, Harris and Trump will both get 40% more votes than they have now by the time counting is complete. That's 2.9 million for Harris and 1.9 for Trump. Completely changes the graph. Harris lost something like 5-10% of Biden electorate and Trump gained a few percent of his. Still bad for Harris but doesn't support the narrative this chart wants to be true.
40% more votes than they have now is 28 million votes each. There is definitely not 56 million more votes to count. At best there's about a million more left to count. Over 150 million votes have already been counted. That's just about the vast majority of votes cast
Sorry if I was unclear, I was just speaking to California, which is the only state with a significant number of votes left to count. Last I checked nationally we were at 95% counted.
As of 10:30am ET on November 11, populous states that have counted less than 95% of the expected votes include:
Just eyeballing those, and a few other smaller states with a significant number left to count, it looks like we can probably expect a few million more Harris votes to be added, and maybe another million or two Trump votes to be added.
So a quick eyeball estimate is that the 2020 minus 2024 gap should probably shrink by about half when it's all counted.