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this post was submitted on 13 Dec 2024
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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I'm guessing what's being said is that in this fictional scenario with an ethically neutral prediction market, you could do insider trading but with fake news? Like, you predict that they will find cheese on the moon, and then you make a story about cheese on the moon.
Either way, it is a moot point since prediction markets are bunk, ethically or otherwise.
there has to be difficulty determining what the most ethical choice is to have an "ethical dilemma." when the options are "do something unethical or don't" that's the opposite of an ethical dilemma!
Oh yeah, haha. I often face the dilemma dilemma in which I have to choose between ignoring the 'incorrect" usage (i.e. not a choice between two things that are difficult to choose between) and seethe OR mention the correct usage and look like a pedant. Sometimes it's a trilemma, and I'm all over the shop. But more seriously, I usually let it slide and let people use it to mean "a situation".
I doubt that Lorenz has a dilemma in line with the correct usage. I couldn't fight the urge to steelman, spoilered below, which I suspect this is nothing near what Lorenz had in mind.
exhausting Steelman within. I only tried to come up with something, it's not a good steelman. I'm so sorry about this.
In the world that Lorenz posits, where prediction markets somehow represent accurate news reporting, either a journalist participates in the market whilst reporting news (conflict of interest), or they don't, and they are bad at their job (and not performing at your job is unethical, I guess?)Oh lol, isn’t this what Hindenburg Research and others are doing, except on the real market? Shorting some company’s stock and then publishing news stories about how bad things are gonna happen to them is a very fun grift…
Guess what I’m saying is, wonder if an FTC with fangs wouldn’t treat prediction markets as an as-yet unregulated securities exchange…