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EU/US: ‘Gigantic’ power of meat industry blocking green alternatives, study finds
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2023
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Alternative milks are currently more expensive than cow milk (by a long way). If that changes, I can see the dairy industry crashing.
To be honest I haven't tried any. But I know lab-grown "milk" is becoming a thing, if you're after the same taste I'd guess that would be your best bet. Not sure if there are any yet.
Lab produced dairy will basically eliminate the dairy farm, once perfected the change will be swift and catastrophic.
2 to 3 years to design and build a plant, one reasonable sized facility will replace 60k cows, that is 20 big farms, 1000 hectares replaced by 4-10 hectares.
I think you need to make it cheaper than cow milk and taste pretty much the same, with a similar nutrient profile. There will still be holdouts but I think the cost thing will be the tipping point. Up until it's the cheapest option, it's still a premium product for a niche market. Once that tipping point is reached, I'd hate to be a dairy farmer.
Agreed, but once it is perfected, dairy industry has at most 5 years before basically their entire industry is vapor.
A lot of the tech from wine making will carry over; pumps, filters massive stainless steel vats and a lot of pipe.....
If you could buy bio-equivalent milk for 1/4 the cost, would you keep buying the "natural" version?
The next question is what will happen when massive Chinese lab-milk factories replace NZ milk. They won't need our exported milk, and this will be a huge issue for the economy given our reliance on exported dairy.
Who knows, but maybe we move to different types of farms. Maybe replant some natives, or grow crops.
It will not be pretty, farmers will not do well out of it.
If there was a breakthrough tomorrow, in some lab somewhere. There would be a couple of years at pilot plant stage; kinda micro brewery size, to see if it can scale, then a couple more years at "small" industrial scale to ensure that all of the kinks are worked out. At that point you are at full commercialisation, 2 - 3 years to get a big plant running.
When a huge industry basically disappears overnight, the flow on impacts will be much wider than just to dairy farmers. Every motorbike and tractor salesman and mechanic, every agriculture specialist from banking to insurance to pasture to large animal vets and livestock agents. Virtually every small town held together by the business of the local farmers will turn into a block of the unemployed, eventually the towns will start to disappear.
Maybe these businesses will survive for a while as dairy blocks convert to sheep and beef, as many of the specialised industries that go along with dairy farms are similar. But this will cause an influx of meat in an industry that already has enough. And people are eating less meat.
If the government wants to cut the number of cattle we have, maybe the answer is to contribute to the lab-milk research to allow it to come about sooner.
Not sure why in NZ it seems that the government is always responsible, this should be driven by the industry e.g. Frontera. After all, it is their lively hood and they are the ones who have created the situation. Admittedly with some push from govt. at times.
it's happening one way or another, but fonterra is owned by farmers. They have no incentive to make it happen quicker. Therefore a nudge may be in order.
Yes they do? Farmers are share holders and Frontera need to make a profit to pay back to farmers. If the industry tanks so do they?
Interestingly, the area where I live was once heavily invested in forestry, mostly native harvesting. The govt. put a stop to that, rightly due to disappearing native forestry. The town nose dived and the population halved. It's a shell of what it once was.
Forestry is beginning to reappear, so the town is unlikely to disappear as many try to report. It will just change. Hopefully some of the dairy will convert to crops (oats) which will see a future, possibly better than now.
My reading of the history of the area where I am, indicates that dairy has NOT contributed much to the prosperity of the area, but there are some wealthy dairy farmers who will sell up with plenty to retire on. And move away taking a lot with them.
I'm honestly not sure how the fonterra this would work. Farmers own shares based out their milk output. They are required to own a certain number of shares based on this. If lab grown milk starts getting processed through fonterra, wouldn't the owners of the lab buy the fonterra shares? If fonterra owns the lab, do current dairy farmers just transition to being owners that aren't contributing milk?
And in regards to the towns, it's worth considering the world is a different place than it was 100 or even 50 years ago. Forestry workers can drive from a bigger city, do a days work, and head home. They don't need the small towns like they used to.
I think anything is just speculation, you can't normally predict the effects of huge change ahead of time. But it will be an interesting next few decades.
I suspect Frontera would 'pay' some farmers to transition to produce the raw ingredients required to produce alternatives. Thus, their expertise could continue to be utilised along with their export strengths. The issue will be with those stubborn farmers who refuse or are reluctant to change - the almighty dollar will speak to them eventually.
Don't see that here. There are local Forestry, Sawmill, and Transport (logging) workers who live in the community and, of what I see, contribute more to the town than dairy workers. It takes very few people to run a modern, robotic dairy these days. Usually just the owner/manager and a couple of foreign workers - often seasonal, so they come and go, most living on the farms, not in the township. Very few farmers shop locally, they tend to travel into the "city" to purchase and/or get groceries delivered (as do I). A few spend a bit at the pub/club, but not as much as you would probably think.
I personally believe there would be an increase in population with a move away from dairy - but that's just my thinking based on what I see.
It's interesting to think about. We'll have to remember to come back to your predictions once the tipping point has been reached.
"LA LA LA LA LA LA I CANT HEAR YOU".
-- Dairy farmers probably.
Not that much more if you compare 1l of dairy milk to 1l of alternate at the cheap end:
We buy powdered milk since we live out of town and it's so much more convenient for us. That works out at about $1.70 a litre - so yeah.
I would be interested in a powdered Oat Milk, for a "reasonable" price.
Powdered oat milk is unlikely to happen, since it doesn't emulsify naturally and has to be mechanically "helped" a fair bit
If you do some searching on "Oat Milk Powder" it is a thing for sale in some parts of the world now. If it's any good or "milk" like, I have no idea?
You don't seem to be able to buy alternative milks in large volume. I think it's fair to compare against the $1.87 per litre you pay if you buy a 3L countdown milk.
Oat milk is what I'm most interested in, I generally don't like the taste of soy, almond, or coconut even when they aren't milk. I quite enjoy oat milk though (but I also like oats). You just have to go into it knowing it won't taste like cow milk.
However even at $4 a litre it's still more than twice as much as the cow milk. You're right though, not as much as I thought.
The issue with Oat milk currently is that it's grown here, shipped to Sweden where it's processed into Oat Milk and then shipped back. Take that shipping out of the equation, and surely it will be a more reasonable price? Let's hope this Oat Milk factory gets built soon!
Yeah, we've discussed that before. Boring is the only one made in NZ. I've recently tried their barista coffee, and quite liked it in my coffee. But I would otherwise drink it black so maybe that's a step backwards 😆
Is this the production of casein protein as a bulk industrial ingredient or actual drinkable milk for the consumer?
Different labs around the world are trialing different things. Drinkable milk is definitely on the cards, but in NZ it seems the focus is on getting casein protein for making better vegan cheese and ice cream. There's an article talking with one NZ company here.
The milk, cheese, and ice cream is already being created and taste tested. The problem is the scale, it needs to be scaled up significantly from current quantities and this may be a challenge. But there are many places working on it, so it's likely just a matter of time.