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Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ rising, economists say, as global markets fall (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 1 week ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/economics@lemmy.world

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Summary

Economists warn that the risk of a U.S. recession is rising due to Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies.

Wall Street stocks fell sharply Monday, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%. Trump refused to rule out a recession, instead claiming it’s a “period of transition.”

Goldman Sachs raised recession odds from 15% to 20%, and Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 GDP forecast. Consumer confidence hit a four-year low, and the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $131 billion.

Analysts say Trump’s tariff policy is fueling uncertainty and economic instability.

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[–] Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone 14 points 1 week ago (1 children)

My retirement accounts are down 17% since Trump took office. That's worse than when Covid hit in 2020. We're about to enter a world of pain aren't we.

[–] cabron_offsets@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago (4 children)

Yes. I have a lot of cash on hand.

[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

In what currency though? Because Trump keeps signaling he's going to crash the dollar out of sheer incompetence.

[–] cabron_offsets@lemmy.world 2 points 1 week ago

All currencies are fucked if the world’s reserve is fucked. Besides, I’m trading those dollars for equities.

[–] wise_pancake@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago

I was going to drop a bunch of cash on a mortgage prepayment and renegotiate with that

Now I’m going to let it ride.

[–] artificialfish@programming.dev 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Worthless. Buy gold.

[–] jsomae@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 week ago (2 children)

gold has like tripled in price over the past few years though. That's gonna come crashing down right?

[–] artificialfish@programming.dev 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Well it’s a volatile asset, but over a lifetime it trends upward, just not as fast as stock. My question to you is, with the debt, with climate change, with AI, with fascism, how much do you trust currency and stocks over your lifetime?

I’m considering PHYS and VDC as a hedge today when markets open.

[–] jsomae@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Looks to me like VDC has gone down just like the S&P500. Are you saying it's likely undervalued?

PSLV should also be a hedge like PHYS; it's also gone up, but not as much as gold. Could be safer.

[–] artificialfish@programming.dev 1 points 1 week ago

Hmm I see you’re right that VDC has a drop. It also had a drop in 2008. Maybe not.

[–] artificialfish@programming.dev 1 points 1 week ago

Silver looks very chaotic to me ngl. I keep some in my vault just for cheaper exchanges, but not as an investment. Thought some say it’ll go up because of solar technology and AI. Idk

[–] artificialfish@programming.dev 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Also we were speaking in terms of currency you can hold in your hand. I’d MUCH (can not emphasize this enough) have gold and silver in hand in my firesafe than USD or BTC. It’s currency not stock. Cash is literally worthless, I don’t keep much at all.

[–] Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone 1 points 1 week ago (2 children)

At this point I wish I had cash in hand instead of invested.

[–] cabron_offsets@lemmy.world 1 points 1 week ago

Nah fuck that. I’m trading cash for equities. Slowly.

[–] artificialfish@programming.dev 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Stocks are ownership in assets. Much better than currency. Just make sure it’s a stable good.

[–] Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone 1 points 1 week ago

That last part is the problem. My investments have lost tremendous value in the past 3 months, whereas if I had cashed our before Trump was sworn in I'd be in a much better spot.