this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2025
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In the original Civil War, the Confederacy had the land advantage and a surplus of people willing to fight.
The North had just as many people willing to fight, but also money.
And because they had money, they had better weaponry, better cavalry, and healthier, happier soldiers.
Further, there were many people in the South who did not agree with the Civil War and who supported the North's conquest of the South.
The South was in a very bad situation financially and organizationally to fight a civil war, whereas Cascadia, being Washington, California, and Oregon would have quite a bit in its favor, Especially if we did something outlandish like ask the Chinese for help in exchange for a trade agreement.
Having a new country pop up between America and the far west would be disastrous for America's financial stability.
I am not saying that we should start a civil war or that we should actually secede from the union. I am just saying that this would not resemble the civil war at all, and barring an early blitzkrieg or a nuclear assault, they could win.
The US's economic war on Canada is also somewhat of an economic war on California/rest of US as well. Goal is to enrich rust belt metals and manufacturing at the expense of all American consumers. The national guard/immigration/pollution war on California is simply fomenting Chaos against it as an additional layer.
The problem with hateful divisiveness against allies and internal states is new questioning over the value of democratic unity. If the US government hates you, then you should look for new friends. Having better value Chinese cars and energy and other consumer goods is extremely attractive on its own, as is denied Chinese market opportunities for CA firms, but if "democratic unity over respect for rulers" no longer makes sense, then it no longer makes sense to tolerate federal tariff extortion, on top of federal corporate and personal taxes used to oppress you.
Unfortunately, weapons/military assistance creates profit opportunity for endless proxy war. Direct nuclear destruction threats are the only way to end war, but nuclear umbrellas are a fiction, because the risk level exceeds devotion to another nation.