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My major concern is that faced with defeat either way, they use dirty bombs to irradiate the population centers of israel. We’d have 9 million refugees and a huge environmental catastrophe.
"Dirty" Bombs are just weapons of terror, the radiation is extremely localized. It would be absolutely pointless for a nation-state to use them. If you want to say that Iran would give Isis/Hamas one, I guess it's possible, but equally pointless. You aren't going to scare Israel away with a dirty bomb.
Is that on the cards? I guess they could load whatever material they have onto missiles and shoot. Even if they're intercepted, the fallout would still occur. But I thought their nuclear option is actually destroying Saudi oil facilities. That would plunge the world into another inflationary cycle and accompanying economic instability, likely political instability too. Wouldn't get rid of the Israeli threat though. I guess irradiating Israel would achieve that.