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this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2023
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I’m curious if they’ll build any fleet carriers? Large super carriers are a sort of requirement for fighting on the vast Pacific Ocean. Or any ocean really.. but especially the biggest (the best ocean)….
They probably won't for a while. They do, however, have helicopter destroyers that coincidentally support F-35 operations. However, please keep in mind that this isn't a carrier, but rather a helicopter destroyer. We may also expect to see helicopter cruisers in the future, but that's TBD.
/s if that wasn't obvious, they already very much have carriers even if they aren't exactly Nimitz-class carriers.
Russia's way ahead of you, with their (semi-mobile) Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrying missile cruiser (no I'm not joking about that name, lol):
See, those are missile tubes in the cough /flight deck/ cough. MISSILE CRUISER!
Do they need to be able to fight across the entire Pacific? Their most likely adversaries are right next door and their most likely ally is the dominant naval power already.
I any money spent on a large carrier would probably be better spent on other things. You can spend 10 billion on a single carrier or get a fleet of ~100 F-35s. I would guess mid-air refueling and more planes will get more sorties over likely targets in a conflict than a carrier would.
I also don't think carriers are going to be the dominant sea power force in a future peer conflict. I think the submarine will dominate the next war. The carrier will be regulated to power projection after the sea is won and made safe to operate in.
Submarines can't win a war at sea alone, and we have ASW capable aircraft flying constantly for surveillance against them. We've been doing it for more than half a century now.
The reason aircraft carriers became ubiquitous was because aircraft are the most effective means of deploying weaponry. That hasn't changed. They can also project power inland as well as engaging surface and sub surface craft.
Nothing about warfare technology has been drastically altered enough for submarines to be the primary fighting force. They have a job that they're damn good at, but aircraft are more multirole and far quicker.
Surveillance, recon and range of weapons has drastically changed. Satellites have the capability to identify a surface fleet and long range weapons are now able to be fired from long distances, find and hit their targets.
I think a couple submarines can effectively negate a carrier task force by just forcing the task force to keep their distance by the threat of a missile launch coming from a patch of seemingly empty see. Any surface ship hunting them is at risk of suddenly becoming the hunted themselves by the submarine or by any land based defense system that are in range.
We employ helicopters and fixed wing to monitor, hunt, and if need be, destroy submarines. Destroyers are also competent submarine hunters.
Nothing about what you've said is inherently "false", but you're not accounting for the ways we fight submarines (mostly aircraft.) Cruise missiles and boomer submarines are a threat, but the technology has been around for long enough that if subs were to become some super weapon because of it we'd have seen it by now. They serve their purpose well, and we have more than a few ways to defend against them (once again, mostly the aircraft from those carriers you insist on pretending are going the way of the battleship.)
Go look up the history of Naval ASW, from the VPB squadrons that flew Pioneers and Catalina's in WW2 to the modern platforms that VP and HSM squadrons use. It's a really interesting progression of technology.
For every one deployed warship, you need two more transiting for resupply or in dock for refit. Their budget probably can't withstand three fleet carriers, but it could probably withstand three more assault carriers armed with STOL F-35s.
Edit: Though, Japan calls them destroyers for hand-wavy 'we only have a self-defense force' reasons.