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this post was submitted on 01 Sep 2023
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Next year is gonna get real ugly, and I think it will all depend on who wins the Republican nomination.
If Trump gets it, which is very likely, unless the Republican Party puts a moratorium on allowing convicted felons to represent their party in the presidential race, then Biden has a chance of winning re-election, since you'd hope that a good portion of the public would want to keep an insurrectionist out.
DeSantis or Ramaswamy getting the nomination and effectively distancing themselves from Trump would mean Biden is in big trouble, unless Trump makes the bold move of running as an independent candidate and driving his most loyal supporters away from the Republican vote. And I think given how the Republican Party nearly got away with overthrowing the state and placing themselves in charge, America could be very close to a civil war or falling into a totalitarian dictatorship.
First of all I think your assessment of desantis or ramaswamy is way off if they get the nod trump will absolutely run as a third party candidate BECAUSE HE HAS TO TO STAY OUT OF PRISON. There is no other option. Either trump wins the GOP nom or he splits the ticket and very likely the party.
They say Republicans fall in line but trump may just be the exception to that rule. His base is so devoted they hate anyone who even tries to be liked him as long as he's out there.
Trump will never fall in line. That's why he ran R for his second and third run at the presidency
From what I saw from the debate, Chris Christie is the dangerous one.
He's not running for POTUS in 2024, but 2028. He was merely trying to desensitize the smoothbrains to the sight of someone daring to criticize Dear Leader, to pave the way for later.
Ramaswamy has a 0% chance of getting the nomination. He's an Indian Hindu, he will never be the face of the GOP. I think he's shooting to be Trump's VP, that's where he's most dangerous. He's very smart, smart enough to play suck-up to Trump, but pull Trump's strings behind the scenes.
DeSantis is a really long shot. He has a surge in popularity when it looked like he could deliver wins, but his war on Disney is failing badly and he has no charisma on stage, unlike Ramaswamy or Trump.
Most likely outcome of the GOP primary is a Trump/Ramaswamy ticket. Trump is really just a figurehead for the trump cult to rally around, publicly using Ramaswamy to refute claims of racism or white nationalism, they'll double down hard on claims that Democrats cheated on 2020, and Ramaswamy will wield much of the actual power behind the curtain.
But Trump doesn't hire people smarter than himself.
Trump can only hire people smarter than himself because he's almost always the dumbest person in the room.
This paragraph gives off a 'Games of Thrones' vibe.
Ramaswamy is legitimately a crazy person. Like full on fucking loony tunes. He sounds articulate to stupid people, but I'm not sure I'd call him smart.
Only ~15% of Republicans are in favor of Desantis. ~6 for Ramaswamy who I've never actually heard of until now lol
I think they could be fucked either way if Trump gets nominated or not.
Ramaswamy isn't going to win, a large percentage of the right won't turn out for him because of his skin color.
And what scenario can someone like DeSantis win the primary? If the GOP disqualifies Trump, the MAGA voters don't turn out for any Republican. And if the GOP doesn't dsiqualify Trump, the only way Desantis can win the primary is if a significant chunk of the MAGA base realizes they were lied to. And Republicans that went along with Trump (like Desantis) will earn a lot of scorn from these people that realized they were being lied to. Only way Destanit wins the primary is if the MAGAs are so disgusted with the political process entirely they drop out and stop voting. But if they stop voting, how will any GOP candidate win a general?
Sure anything can happen, but right now I can't see a path for any GOP candidate to win the general election except for the ones like Chris Christie that have come out hard against Trump. And that's such an extreme longshot it's not worth worrying about much.