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If there is a mutual defense pact, I hope that there is also an agreement to help the good guys in a 2nd American Civil War. Having trade, transport, and military cooperation would go a long way towards making this shitshow end sooner.
I will also make a prediction: Iran and other Middle East nations that have been attacked by America would have agreements with Mexico and Canada to be granted passage and support for operating within the US. It is pretty much Behind the Bastard's universal theory of "fuck that guy.".
I mean... that ABSOLUTELY would have to happen. Going up against the US in its back yard in a traditional war would be absolutely blitheringly stupid. The US, one thing everyone can agree on has put so much money in its military that China is the only superpower that really has a chance to throw its whole military might against the whole of the US military might and not be crushed. The US has trouble with wars because we don't commit wholly to a war, and keep our military spread all over the world. If the mutual defense pact comes up and you have two neighboring countries at the north and south at war, the US will commit fully.
But the US is, for all its pride that's how independence was gained, terrible at asymmetric warfare. It's why Afghanistan would be considered a failure, is traditional warfare tactics was not what it took to take out the leadership there, and honestly we made things worse. So basically, if there is a mutual defense pact between those two and it doesn't include help get a civil war going and assist it any way possible, I would think then the pact would be useless.
I think its almost universally accepted that the US would crush Canada in a traditional land war, but the long term occupation would destroy the US. Its one thing to invade a distant land across the world with people who look and speaking nothing like you. Its a different story to do it in your own backyard with people who look, talk and think like you and are thorough embedded in your society.